Skepticism

 I just came across this comment I wrote a decade ago on a post that Steve Novella wrote on his blog, and I think it's pretty good, but it generated zero comment and no upvotes or downvotes. I just came across it again while looking for old comments I made about Al Seckel, who is in the news again for his role in attempting to scrub negative information about Jeffrey Epstein from the Internet. ...

 The Wikipedia entry for University of Kentucky psychologist and skeptic Robert A. Baker recently (December 2023) restored a section on plagiarism accusations against him, which originated in a 1994 letter to the editor of Skeptical Inquirer from Jody Hey and were compounded by further accusations by Terence Hines and by me the same year. Unfortunately, the Wikipedia entry currently leaves the debate the same way the Skeptical Inquirer did in 1995, giving Baker the final word with a transparently false explanation.  Here's how the Wikipedia entry currently presents the issue: ...

This timeline has been updated with Trump rallies and golf playing since (as of March 31, 2020) he is now trying to create a narrative that claims he was trying hard to address the pandemic early on, but was distracted by his impeachment. He was impeached by the House on December 18, 2019, and his Senate trial ran from January 16, 2020 to his acquittal on February 5, 2020. 2015: Obama’s National Security Advisor, Susan Rice, establishes the Global Health Security and Biodefense Unit in the White House National Security Council. (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-fired-pandemic-team/partly-false-claim-trump-fired-entire-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M) January 13, 2017: The joint Obama-Trump transition teams run an exercise for pandemic preparedness. Trump transition team attendees include: Steven Mnuchin, Rep. Mike Pompeo, Wilbur Ross, Betsy DeVos, Dr. Ben Carson, Elaine Chao, Stephen Miller, Marc Short, Reince Priebus (resigned), Rex Tillerson (fired), Gen. James Mattis (fired), Rep. Ryan Zinke (resigned), Sen. Jeff Sessions (resigned), Sen. Dan Coats (fired), Andrew Puzder (not confirmed), Dr. Tom Price (resigned), Gov. Rick Perry (resigned), Dr. David Shulkin (fired), Gen. John Kelly (resigned), Rep. Mick Mulvaney, Linda McMahon (resigned), Sean Spicer (fired), Joe Hagin (resigned), Joshua Pitcock (resigned), Tom Bossert (resigned), KT McFarland (resigned), Gen. Michael Flynn (awaiting criminal sentencing after pleading guilty to lying to the FBI), Gary Cohn (resigned), Katie Walsh (resigned), and Rick Dearborn (resigned). (https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/) May 2018: The Global Health Security and Biodefense Unit in the White House National Security Council is disbanded by National Security Advisor John Bolton after its head, Timothy Ziemer, leaves the Trump administration. Pandemic response functions are folded into other teams. (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-fired-pandemic-team/partly-false-claim-trump-fired-entire-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M). January-August 2019: Nineteen agencies of the federal government and twelve states conduct a pandemic functional exercise, “Crimson Contagion.” The scenario is a novel influenza virus that arises in China and spreads to the United States, but stockpiles of vaccines are not a match to enable the virus to be contained. (https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/crimson-contagion-2019-simulation-warned-of-pandemic-implications-in-us/2243832/) The Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Dr. Robert Kadlec, appointed by Donald Trump in 2017 and who played a key decision-making role in this exercise, downplayed the risk of pandemic, cut the budget, and cut the program for stockpiling personal protective equipment (PPE). Instead, he spent money on stockpiles of smallpox vaccine, purchasing $2.8 billion of it from a company that had previously employed him as a consultant. (Smallpox was eradicated in 1980.) (https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/before-pandemic-trumps-stockpile-chief-put-focus-on-biodefense-an-old-client-benefited/2020/05/04/d3c2b010-84dd-11ea-878a-86477a724bdb_story.html) July 2019: The Trump administration made the decision to eliminate the position of CDC’s resident advisor to the U.S. Field Epidemiology Training Program in China, Dr. Linda Quick, in September 2019. She quit her job in July after receiving the news. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S) September 2019: The Trump administration ends a $200 million pandemic early warning program, PREDICT, at the U.S. Agency for International Development, started in 2009, aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to new viruses. During its lifetime, the project identified 1,200 viruses with pandemic potential. The PREDICT program involved 60 foreign laboratories, including the Chinese lab in Wuhan which identified SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. (https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection) October 25, 2019: Former Vice President Joe Biden tweets: “We are not prepared for a pandemic. Trump has rolled back progress President Obama and I made to strengthen global health security. We need leadership that builds public trust, focuses on real threats, and mobilizes the world to stop outbreaks before they reach our shores.” (https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437) December 24, 2019: As of June 2021, this is now the earliest suspected date of COVID-19 infection in the United States, per antibodies in blood donated by nine individuals between January 2 and March 18, 2020. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/when-was-coronavirus-first-in-us/2021/06/15/1aaa6b56-cd2d-11eb-8cd2-4e95230cfac2_story.html) December 31, 2019: Donald Trump tells assembled guests at the Mar-a-Lago New Year’s Eve celebration that “We’re going to have a great year, I predict. I think it’s going to be a fantastic year.” (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444) January 2-3, 2020: Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Director Robert Redfield has conversations about a virus outbreak in China with his counterpart at China’s CDC, Gao Fu, who warns him that it is extremely serious. (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3084092/us-cdc-had-very-good-interaction-china-after-coronavirus) January 8, 2020: The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) issues its first warning about a novel coronavirus now known as COVID-19. January 9: Trump holds a campaign rally in Toledo, Ohio. January 9: Berlin, Germany scientist Olfert Landt’s company, TIB Molbiol, develops its first COVID-19 test based on existing SARS tests. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/testing-coronavirus-science-intl-hnk/index.html) January 10: The RNA sequence data for COVID-19 was published online: http://virological.org/t/novel-2019-coronavirus-genome/319 January 11: Olfert Landt sends a developed COVID-19 test to the Taiwan CDC and Roche in Hong Kong for validation. The test ends up working. January 14: Trump holds a campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. mid-January: The U.S. begins some screening of passengers from Wuhan, China, at airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York City. Prior to this event, at least 4,000 passengers arrived in the U.S. directly from Wuhan, China without any screening. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html) January 16: The U.S. House sends articles of impeachment to the Senate, starting Trump’s first impeachment trial. January 17: WHO publishes Olfert Landt’s COVID-19 test protocol. TIB Molbiol manufactured four million tests by the end of February, and 1.5 million per week after that. January 17: CDC announces that it has its own COVID-19 test. (See February 5.) January 18: Dr. Rick Bright, director of the HHS Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority at HHS, sends an email to ASPR Robert Kadlec asking to convene a Disaster Leadership Group (DLG) meeting over COVID-19. Kadlec responds that he doesn’t think it is necessary and doesn’t see the urgency. (https://theintercept.com/2020/05/07/coronavirus-whistleblower-hhs-n95-ppe/) January 18: Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar phones Trump at Mar-a-Lago to warn him about the risk of coronavirus, but “Even before the heath [sic] secretary could get a word in about the virus, Trump cut him off and began criticizing Azar for his handling of an aborted federal ban on vaping products, a matter that vexed the president.” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/) January 18: Trump plays golf at the Trump International, West Palm Beach, Florida. January 19: Trump (possibly) plays golf at the Trump International, West Palm Beach, Florida. January 21: CDC confirms first U.S. case of COVID-19. (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0121-novel-coronavirus-travel-case.html) See December 24, 2019 above. January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.” (https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-says-he-trusts-xis-word-on-coronavirus-its-all-under-control) 314 global cases in 4 countries, 309 China, 4 outside China (Thailand, Japan, South Korea). January 26: Sen. Schumer calls on the Department of Health and Human Services for coronavirus to be designated a public health emergency. (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/30/how-coronavirus-shook-congress-complacency-155058) January 27: Joe Biden writes an op-ed warning of the U.S.’s lack of preparedness for the coronavirus pandemic. (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/nobody-expected-the-coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-did.html) January 28: Elizabeth Warren releases a plan for “Preventing, Containing, and Treating Infectious Disease Outbreaks at Home and Abroad." January 28: Trump holds a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey. January 30: Trump holds a campaign rally in Des Moines, Iowa. February 1: Trump plays golf at the Trump International, West Palm Beach, Florida. February 2: Trump (possibly) plays golf at the Trump International, West Palm Beach, Florida. February 2: Trump’s ordered restrictions on travel from China take effect. These restrictions do not apply to Americans returning from China. 279 flights from China occurred after this date, and screening of returning passengers was haphazard and inconsistent. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html) February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/us/coronavirus-airports.html) 14,557 global cases in 23 countries, 14,411 China, 146 outside of China (WHO). CDC starts sending out test kits in first week of February, which turn out to be faulty. February 5: The U.S. Senate impeachment trial votes to acquit Trump on both articles. February 5: CDC announces it will begin shipping COVID-19 tests to states. Shortly thereafter, it is determined that the CDC test kits don’t work. February 6: Patricia Dowd of Santa Clara County, California, dies from COVID-19, though this is not determined until late April. (https://www.axios.com/first-us-coronavirus-death-earlier-autopsy-dbc72f86-30ed-47e5-b5d8-6811643f9853.html) February 7: Trump to Bob Woodward, in an interview for his new book, Rage: “It’s also more deadly than your – you know, your – even your strenuous flus…This is 5%, versus 1% percent and less than 1%.” (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/09/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump-coronavirus/index.html) 31,481 global cases in 24 countries, 31,211 China, 270 outside of China, 637 deaths in China, 1 death outside of China, U.S. 12 cases (WHO). February 10: “You know in April, supposedly, it dies with the hotter weather.” Interview with Trish Regan, Fox Business. (https://factba.se/transcript/donald-trump-interview-trish-regan-fox-business-february-10-2020) 40,554 global cases in 24 countries, 40,235 China, 319 outside China, U.S. 12 cases (WHO). February 10: Trump holds a campaign rally in Manchester, New Hampshire. February 15: Trump plays golf at the Trump International, West Palm Beach, Florida. February 19: Trump holds a campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona. February 20: Trump holds a campaign rally in Colorado Springs, Colorado. February 21: Trump holds a campaign rally in Las Vegas, Nevada. February 23: Trump and the White House National Security Council is sent a memo from White House economic advisor Peter Navarro warning of coronavirus epidemic in the U.S. which could kill up to two million Americans. (https://www.axios.com/exclusive-navarro-deaths-coronavirus-memos-january-da3f08fb-dce1-4f69-89b5-ea048f8382a9.html) February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1232058127740174339) Dow closes down 227.51 points at 28,992.40. 79,331 global cases in 29 countries, 77,262 China, 2,069 outside China, 35 U.S. 12 labs other than CDC can perform coronavirus testing. February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.” (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1232492821501771776) 80,239 global cases in 33 countries, 77,780 China, 2,459 outside China, 53 U.S. February 25: “I think that’s a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine." In India. (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-coronavirus-control-us-problem/story?id=69198905) The vaccine was, in fact, for Ebola, not COVID-19: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/white-house-says-trumps-vaccine-claims-about-ebola-not-coronavirus.html February 25: “This president will always put Americans first. He will always protect American citizens. We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here.” Trump press secretary Kayleigh McEnany to Trish Regan on Fox Business. (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444) February 26: First confirmed community spread (from person to person unrelated to travel in China) within the United States (per evidence as of June 2021). (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/when-was-coronavirus-first-in-us/2021/06/15/1aaa6b56-cd2d-11eb-8cd2-4e95230cfac2_story.html) February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.” White House Press Conference. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/) 81,109 global cases in 37 countries, 78,191 China, 2,918 outside China, 53 U.S. First day with more new cases outside China than in China. First two reported COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. in Seattle, Washington, though there had already been earlier deaths not yet attributed to COVID-19 (see February 6). (https://www.axios.com/first-us-coronavirus-death-earlier-autopsy-dbc72f86-30ed-47e5-b5d8-6811643f9853.html) February 26: “So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.” White House Press Conference (same link as above) February 26: “We’re going very substantially down, not up.” White House Press Conference (same link as above) February 26: “Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape! @CDCgov…..” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1232652371832004608) February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.” At White House. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-miracle-stock-markets/index.html) 82,294 global cases in 46 countries, 78,630 China, 3,664 outside China, 59 U.S. More new cases in Korea than China. February 27: Laura Ingraham on Fox News in front of screen that shows an NPR story “Italy Reports 650 Cases And 17 Deaths” with a Fox chyron reading “LEFT TRYING TO PANIC AMERICANS OVER CORONAVIRUS.” (Photo from Sean Howe on Bluesky.) February 27: Sean Hannity in front of a screen that says “CORONAVIRUS DEATHS IN U.S.” with the number “0”. (Photo from Nothings Monstered on Bluesky.) February 28: “We’re ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn’t be ordering unless it was something like this. But we’re ordering a lot of different elements of medical.” At White House. (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233516512830459908) 83,652 global cases in 51 countries, 78,961 China, 4,691 outside China, 59 U.S. February 28: Trump holds a campaign rally in North Charleston, South Carolina. At this rally, Trump said: “Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus, you know that, right? Coronavirus, they’re politicizing it. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. … ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.’ That didn’t work out too well… Think of it. And this is their new hoax. But we did something that’s pretty amazing. We have 15 people in this massive country and because of the fact that we went early. … So a number that nobody heard of recently, and I was shocked to hear it, 35,000 people on average die each year from the flu. Did anyone know that? 35,000, that’s a lot of people. And so far we have lost nobody to coronavirus in the United States. Nobody. And it doesn’t mean we won’t and we are totally prepared. It doesn’t mean we won’t, but think of it. You hear 35 and 40,000 people and we’ve lost nobody and you wonder the press is in hysteria mode. … My administration has taken the most aggressive action in modern history to prevent the spread of this illness in the United States. We are ready. We are ready. Totally ready. … A virus starts in China, bleeds its way into various countries all around the world, doesn’t spread widely at all in the U.S. because of the early actions that myself and my administration took against a lot of other wishes. … We had [to] quarantine some people. They weren’t happy, they weren’t happy about it. I want to tell you there are a lot of people that [were] not so happy, but after two weeks they got happy.” Trump’s statement that no one in the U.S. had been lost to COVID-19 was false both by not-yet-known deaths (see February 6) and by publicly reported deaths (see February 26), but the first officially confirmed COVID-19 death came on February 29. (https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1259119606955945986) February 29: First confirmed U.S. COVID-19 death, a man in Kirkland, Washington. (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1st-coronavirus-death-u-s-officials-say-n1145931) March 1: Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro warns Trump in a memo to “MOVE IN TRUMP TIME” to invest in preparations for coronavirus, including drug ingredients, tests, and other supplies. “There is NO downside risk to taking swift actions as an insurance policy against what may be a very serious public health emergency. If the COVID-19 crisis quickly recedes, the only thing we will have been guilty of is prudence.” Trump ignored these recommendations; on April 7, 2020 he said he hadn’t seen the memo. (Washington Post story, March 31, 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/31/navarro-pandemic-supply-contracts-trump/) Navarro subsequently used his influence to push to award hundreds of millions of dollars in government contracts to untested firms, including a $354 million contract from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA; also see January 21, 2021 entry below), a $96 million no-bid deal for respirators, and a $34.5 million deal from the VA which ended with a contractor pleading guilty to fraud, among other examples documented by ProPublica (https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-covid-pandemic-contracts). March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don’t think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?” White House coronavirus task force meeting. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-members-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-pharmaceutical-companies/) 88,948 global cases in 64 countries, 80,174 China, 8,774 outside China, 62 U.S. CDC removes number of tests completed from its website (474 on March 1). (https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/2/21161693/cdc-coronavirus-testing-numbers-website-disappear-expansion-us) March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.” White House coronavirus task force meeting, same as previous link. March 2: Trump holds a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina. March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work - some of them go to work, but they get better." (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/trump-disputes-coronavirus-death-rate-121892) 94,091 global cases in 76 countries, 80,422 China, 12,669 outside China, 108 U.S. March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.” (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/trump-disputes-coronavirus-death-rate-121892) 95,324 global cases in 85 countries/territories/areas, 80,565 China, 14,759 outside China, 129 U.S. March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1235604572850343937) March 5: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control planned to post a global travel alert for all countries, but it was delayed by the White House until March 11. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/politics/coronavirus-travel-alert-cdc-white-house-tensions-invs/index.html) March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.” At CDC. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-tour-centers-disease-control-prevention-atlanta-ga/) 98,192 global cases in 88 countries/territories/areas, 80,711 China, 17,481 outside China, 148 U.S. March 6: “The tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.” At CDC, same as previous link. March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” At CDC, same as previous link. March 6: “I don’t need to have the numbers to double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault.” At CDC, same as previous link. March 6: “It’s something that nobody expected.” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing/) March 6: “Everybody who wants a test can get a test.” At CDC, same as previous link. In fact, tests are still hard to come by on March 23: https://thebulwark.com/where-are-the-tests/ March 6: “It’ll go away.” (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444) March 7: Trump plays golf at the Trump International, West Palm Beach, Florida. March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1236634209516752896) 105,586 global cases in 101 countries/territories/areas, 80,859 China, 24,727 outside China, 213 U.S. March 8: Trump plays golf at the Trump International, West Palm Beach, Florida. Prior to March 9: CDC wanted to recommend people over 60 stay at home, but Trump administration said no. (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/mismanagement-missed-opportunities-how-white-house-bungled-coronavirus-response-n1158746) March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1237027356314869761) 109,577 global cases in 104 countries/territories/areas, 80,904 China, 28,673 outside China, 213 U.S. March 9: “And we have a great economy, we have a very strong economy, but this came – this blindsided the world. And I think we’ve handled it very, very well. I think they’ve done a great job.” Press conference. (https://factba.se/transcript/donald-trump-remarks-coronavirus-briefing-march-9-2020) March 10: “Be calm. It’s really working out. And a lot of good things are going to happen.” Press conference. (https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1237453485899223040) March 11: “Health insurers have agreed to waive all copayments for coronavirus treatments.” Press conference. (https://twitter.com/owermohle/status/1237922717699014658) In fact, this only applied to tests, not treatments. March 11: CDC posts a global travel alert that had been intended for release six days earlier but was delayed by the White House. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/politics/coronavirus-travel-alert-cdc-white-house-tensions-invs/index.html) March 12: White House says neither Trump nor Pence will be tested for coronavirus despite contacts with people who have tested positive. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/politics/trump-brazil-coronavirus.html) March 12: “It’s going to go away.” (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444) March 13: Trump repeatedly shakes hands at White House coronavirus press conference, despite knowing that he has recently been exposed to people who have now tested positive for the virus. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/13/trump-handshakes-coronavirus-press-conference/) 132,758 global cases in 122 countries/territories/areas, 80,991 China, 51,767 outside China, 1,264 U.S. Dow closes the week at 23,185.62. March 13: “I don’t take responsibility at all.” White House press conference, in response to question about whether Trump takes any responsibility for the failures in U.S. coronavirus testing. (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/trump-coronavirus-testing-128971) March 13: Trump says he likely will be tested for coronavirus. Same White House press conference. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/politics/donald-trump-emergency/index.html) March 13 (evening just before midnight): White House doctor Sean Conley issues statement saying that Trump doesn’t need to be quarantined or even tested for coronavirus because he is at low risk. (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/03/14/whmemo.png) March 14: “SOCIAL DISTANCING!” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1238824050924883968) CDC has tested 3,958 specimens (not individuals). 142,539 global cases in 135 countries/territories/areas, 81,021 China, 61,618 outside China, 1,678 U.S. March 14: “It’s something that nobody expected.” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing/) March 14: Trump says he has been tested for coronavirus and is awaiting results expected in a day or two. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/politics/trump-press-conference-coronavirus/index.html) March 14: New screening measures are introduced at airports, which lead to delays from processing bottlenecks and large crowds of people. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2020/03/14/europe-travel-ban-airport-delays/) March 15: The White House announces Trump has tested negative for coronavirus. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/politics/trump-press-conference-coronavirus/index.html) The Fed announces $700B in quantitative easing as stock market futures hit circuit breakers after a 5% drop. March 15: “We’re learning from watching other countries … This is a very contagious virus, it’s incredible, but it’s something that we have tremendous control over.” (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/fact-check-trump-control-coronavirus/index.html) March 16: “That’s not under control for any place in the world. … I’m not talking about the virus.” Press conference. (https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1239637609309261826) 167,511 global cases in 151 countries/territories/areas, 81,077 China, 86,434 outside China, 1,678 U.S. (CDC count for U.S.: 3,487). March 16: The Supreme Court announces that it is postponing its next argument sitting, for the first time since it did the same in 1918 due to the deadly global influenza outbreak. March 16: “Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves.” On conference call with U.S. governors. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/coronavirus-news.html) March 16: “It’s so contagious. It’s so contagious. It’s like record-setting contagious.” White House press conference. (https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/donald-trump-admits-contagious-coronavirus-control-12407873/) March 17: “I’ve always known, this is a real … this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” White House press conference. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/fact-check-trump-always-knew-pandemic-coronavirus/index.html) (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1239956622312701952) 179,112 global cases, 7,426 deaths (WHO), U.S. 4,226 cases, 75 deaths (CDC). March 19: “You’re actually sitting too close. You should really – we should probably get rid of another 75%, 80% of you. I’ll have just two or three that I like in this room.” White House press conference. (https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1240678632361807873) March 19: “I only signed the Defense Production Act to combat the Chinese Virus should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future. Hopefully there will be no need, but we are all in this TOGETHER!” Twitter (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1240391871026864130) Trump didn’t sign the Defense Production Act, which was signed into law in 1950 by Harry S Truman, who, as Kevin M. Kruse noted in response to this tweet (https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1240446891055251457), famously said “the buck stops here,” rather than the “I don’t take responsibility at all” of this president. As of March 23, Trump still hasn’t invoked the Defense Production Act. 209,839 global cases, 8,778 deaths (WHO), U.S. 10,442 cases, 150 deaths (CDC). March 19: In an interview with Bob Woodward for his new book, Rage, Trump says of the coronavirus that “I always wanted to play it down. I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.” He admits he knew that it was deadly and worse than the flu. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump/2020/09/09/0368fe3c-efd2-11ea-b4bc-3a2098fc73d4_story.html) March 20: Yamiche Alcindor asks Trump at his press conference: “When will everyone who needs a coronavirus test be able to get a test?” Trump’s response: “No-one is talking about this except you, which doesn’t surprise me.” Alcindor: “What about people w/ symptoms who cannot get a test?” Trump: “Yeah, well, OK. I’m not— I’m not hearing it.” (https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1241056026872426496) 234,073 global cases, 9,840 deaths (WHO), U.S. 15,219 cases, 201 deaths (CDC). Tests done to date: CDC: 4,524, public health labs: 49,681, commercial labs: 88,000. (https://twitter.com/davidalim/status/1241111313935458305) March 20: “We haven’t been given the credit we’ve deserved.” White House press conference. (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1241054458525765634) March 22: “Ford, General Motors and Tesla are being given the go ahead to make ventilators and other metal products, FAST! @fema Go for it auto execs, lets see how good you are? @RepMarkMeadows @GOPLeader @senatemajldr” (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1241732681366482944) 292,142 global cases, 12,784 deaths, U.S. 15,219 cases, 201 deaths. This tweet apparently a reference to Ford making respirators in partnership with 3M and GE Healthcare: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/business/ford-3m-ge-ventilators-coronavirus-duplicate-2/index.html March 23: 332,930 global cases, 14,510 deaths (WHO), U.S. 33,404 cases, 400 deaths (CDC). Dr. Fauci doesn’t appear at Trump’s daily press conference. March 24: “Our people want to return to work. They will practice Social Distancing and all else, and Seniors will be watched over protectively & lovingly. We can do two things together. THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (by far) THAN THE PROBLEM! Congress MUST ACT NOW. We will come back strong!” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242455267603877894) 372,757 global cases, 16,231 deaths (WHO), U.S. 44,183 cases, 544 deaths (CDC). March 25: “Just reported that the United States has done far more “testing” than any other nation, by far! In fact, over an eight day span, the United States now does more testing than what South Korea (which has been a very successful tester) does over an eight week span. Great job!” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242824631230308353?s=19) 414,179 global cases, 18,440 deaths (WHO), U.S. 68,440 cases, 994 deaths (CDC). While the U.S. has done a greater number of tests, it also has a much larger population – where Korea has tested 1 of every 170 people, the U.S. has tested 1 of every 1,090 people. March 26: “I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they are going to be. I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators.” Press conference. (https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1243354645927530498) 462,684 global cases, 49,219 deaths (WHO), U.S. 68,440 cases, 994 deaths (CDC). March 27: 509,164 global cases, 23,335 deaths (WHO), U.S. 85,356 cases, 1,246 deaths. Unknown date, likely after official launch of these machines on March 27: Trump secretly sends Abbott Point of Care COVID test systems to Vladimir Putin for his personal use, per Bob Woodward’s 2024 book, War. (https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/08/politics/bob-woodward-book-war-joe-biden-putin-netanyahu-trump/index.html) March 28: “You can call it a germ. You can call it a flu. You can call it a virus. You can call it many different names. I’m not sure anyone even knows what it is.” Press conference. (https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1243670348211654664) 571,678 global cases, 62,514 deaths (WHO), 103,321 cases, 1,668 deaths (CDC). March 28: “I am giving consideration to a QUARANTINE of developing “hot spots”, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. A decision will be made, one way or another, shortly.” Twitter. (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243953994743103489) Advance notice of a quarantine order caused many people to leave northern Italy and spread the virus (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/italys-virus-lockdown-dash-train-69469683). The three states here already had shelter-in-place orders from their governors. Trump subsequently retracted his quarantine suggestion in a pair of tweets (https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1244056559577071616). March 29: “We sent thousands of generators to New York … the people in New York never distributed the generators.” Press conference, Trump means ventilators. (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1244394071982051329) 634,835 global cases, 29,957 deaths (WHO), U.S. 122,653 cases, 2,112 deaths (CDC). March 29: “You’re talking about 2.2 million deaths … So if we can hold that down, as we’re saying, to 100,000, it’s a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 [thousand] and 200,000, we altogether have done a very good job.” (https://www.vox.com/2020/3/30/21199586/us-coronavirus-deaths-trump-200000-good-job) March 30: “It will go away. You know it–you know it is going away, and it will go away, and we’re going to have a great victory.” (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444) March 30: Dr. Stephen M. Hahn of the FDA tweets that the FDA has issued an authorization (on March 29) to Battelle for an N95 mask decontamination system recommended by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine; Trump retweets it with thanks to DeWine. The system does not work and the authorization is revoked by April 30, 2021. (https://twitter.com/SteveFDA/status/1244472087831552004) March 31: “It’s going to go away, hopefully at the end of the month. And, if not, hopefully it will be soon after that.” (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444) ...

"I believe that we are rapidly transitioning from an Age of Information to an Age of Misinformation, and in many cases, outright disinformation." -- Al Seckel, in an interview published on Jeffrey Epstein's website, "Jeffrey Epstein Talks Perception with Al Seckel" Mark Oppenheimer's long-awaited exposé on Al Seckel, "The Illusionist," has now been published and I urge all skeptics to read it. Seckel, the former head of the Southern California Skeptics and a CSICOP Scientific and Technical Consultant who was listed as a "physicist" in every issue of the Skeptical Inquirer from vol. 11, no. 2 (Winter 1987-88) to vol. 15, no. 2 (Winter 1991) despite having no degree in physics, has long been known among skeptical insiders as a person who was misrepresenting himself and taking advantage of others. Most have remained silent over fear of litigation, which Seckel has engaged in successfully in the past. An example of a legal threat from Seckel is this email he sent to me on May 27, 2014: Dear Jim, News has once again reached me that you are acting as Tom McIver's proxy in spreading misinformation and disinformation about me. Please be aware that I sued McIver in a Court of Law for Defamation and Slander, and after a very lengthy discovery process, which involved showing that he fabricated letters from my old professors (who provided notarized statements that they did not ever state nor write the letters that McIver circulated, and the various treasures who were in control of the financial books of the skeptics, also came forth and testified that no money was taken, and McIver was unable to prove any of his allegations. The presiding Judge stated that this was the "worst case of slander and defamation" that he had ever seen. Nevertheless, even with such a Court Order he is persisting, and using (and I mean the term "using") you to further propagate erroneous misinformation. Lately, he has been making his defamatory comments again various people, and posting links to a news release article by the Courthouse News (a press release service) that reports the allegations set forth in complaints. Just because something is "alleged" does not mean it is True. It has to be proven in a Court of Law. In this case, after a lengthy discovery process (and I keep excellent records) the opposite of what was alleged was discovered, and the opposing counsel "amicably" dismissed their charges against me. The case was officially dismissed. In fact, the opposing counsel has been active in trying to get the Courthouse News to actively remove the entire article, and not just add a footnote at the end. I note that you have been trying to add this link to my wikipedia page. I have never met you, and am not interested in fighting with you. I am attaching the official Court document that this case was filed for dismissal by the opposing counsel. You can verify yourself that this is an accurate document with the Court. So, once again, McIver has used you. My attorneys are now preparing a Criminal Complaint against McIver for so openly violating the Court Order (it is now a criminal offense), and will once again open the floodgates of a slander and defamation lawsuit against him and his family, and anyone else, who aids him willing in this process. This time he will not have his insurance company cover his defense. This time that axe will come down hard on him. For now, I will just think you are victim, but please remove any and all references to me on any of your websites, and that will be the end of it. You don't want to be caught in the crossfire. Yours sincerely, Al Seckel -- Al Seckel Cognitive neuroscientist, author, speaker Contrary to what Seckel writes, we have, in fact, met--I believe it was during the CSICOP conference, April 3-4, 1987, in Pasadena, California.  I am not an agent of Tom McIver, the anthropologist, librarian, and author of the wonderful reference book cataloging anti-evolution materials, Anti-Evolution, who Seckel sued for defamation in 2007, in a case that was settled out of court (see Oppenheimer's article). I have never met Tom McIver, though I hope I will be able to do so someday--he seems to me to be a man of good character, integrity, and honesty. The news release Seckel mentions is regarding a lawsuit filed by Ensign Consulting Ltd. in 2011 against Seckel charging him with fraud, which is summarized online on the Courthouse News Service website. I wrote a brief account of the case based on that news article on Seckel's Wikipedia page in an edit on March 13, 2011, but it was deleted by another editor in less than an hour.  Seckel is correct that just because something is alleged does not mean that it is true; my summary was clear that these were accusations made in a legal filing. Seckel and his wife, Isabel Maxwell (daughter of the deceased British-Czech media mogul, Robert Maxwell), rather than fighting the suit or showing up for depositions, filed for bankruptcy.  Ensign filed a motion in their bankruptcy case on December 2, 2011, repeating the fraud allegations.  But as Seckel notes, Ensign did dismiss their case in 2014 prior to his sending me the above email. So why should anyone care?  Who is Al Seckel, and what was he worried that I might be saying about him? This is mostly answered by the Oppenheimer article, but there is quite a bit more that could be said, and more than what I will say here to complement "The Illusionist." Al Seckel was the founder and executive director of the Southern California Skeptics, a Los Angeles area skeptics group that met at Caltech.  This was one of the earliest local skeptical groups, with a large membership and prominent scientists on its advisory board.  Seckel has published numerous works including editing two collections of Bertrand Russell's writings for Prometheus Books (both reviewed negatively in the Journal of Bertrand Russell Studies, see here and here).  He has given a TED talk on optical illusions and authored a book with the interesting title, Masters of Deception, which has a forward by Douglas R. Hofstadter.  Seckel was an undergraduate at Cornell University, and developed an association with a couple of cognitive psychology labs at Caltech--in 1998 the New York Times referred to him as a "research associate at the Shimojo Psychophysics Laboratory." His author bios have described him as author of the monthly Neuroquest column at Discover magazine ("About the Author" on Masters of Deception; Seckel has never written that column), as "a physicist and molecular biologist" (first page of Seckel's contribution, "A New Age of Obfuscation and Manipulation" in Robert Basil, editor, Not Necessarily the New Age, 1988, Prometheus Books, pp. 386-395; Seckel is neither a physicist nor a molecular biologist), and, in his TED talk bio, as having left Caltech to continue his work "in spatial imagery with psychology researchers as Harvard" (see Oppenheimer's exchanges with Kosslyn, who has never met or spoken with him and Ganis, who says he has exchanged email with him but not worked with him). At Cornell, Seckel associated with L. Pearce Williams, a professor of history of science, who had interesting things to say when McIver asked him about their relationship. While in at least one conference bio, Seckel is listed as having been Carl Sagan's teaching assistant, I do not believe that was the case. The Cornell registrar reported in 1991 in response to a query from Pat Linse that Seckel only attended for two semesters and a summer session, though a few places on the web list him as a Cornell alumnus. Seckel used to hang out at Caltech with Richard Feynman. As the late Helen Tuck, Feyman's administrative assistant, wrote in 1991, Seckel "latched on to Feynman like a leach [sic]." Tuck wrote that she became suspicious of Seckel, and contacted Cornell to find that he did not have a degree from that institution. You can see her full letter, written in response to a query from Tom McIver, here. As the head of the Southern California Skeptics, Seckel managed to get a column in the Los Angeles Times, titled "Skeptical Eye." Most of his columns were at least partially plagiarized from the work of others, including his column on Sunny the counting dalmation (plagiarized from Robert Sheaffer), his column on tabloid psychics' predictions for 1987 (also plagiarized from Sheaffer), and his column about Martin Reiser's tests of psychic detectives (plagiarized directly from Reiser's work). When Seckel plagiarized Sheaffer, it was brought to the attention of Kent Harker, editor of the Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet (BASIS), who contacted Seckel about it. Seckel apparently told Harker that Sheaffer had given his permission to allow publication of his work under Seckel's name, which Sheaffer denied when Harker asked. This led to Harker writing to Seckel in 1988 to tell him about Sheaffer's denial, and inform him that he, Seckel, was no longer welcome to reprint any material from BASIS in LASER, the Southern California Skeptics' newsletter. While most skeptical groups gave each other blanket permission to reprint each others' material with attribution, Harker explicitly retracted this permission for Seckel. This is, I think, a good case study in how the problem of "affinity fraud"--being taken in by deception by a member of a group you self-identify with--can be possible for skeptics, scientists, and other educated people, just as it is for the more commonly publicized cases of affinity fraud within religious organizations. This just scratches the surface of the Seckel story. I hope that those who have been fearful of litigation from Seckel will realize that, given the Oppenheimer story, now is an opportune time for multiple people to come forward and offer each other mutual support that was unhappily unavailable for Tom McIver eight years ago. (BTW, one apparent error in the Oppenheimer piece--I am unaware of Richard Feynman lending his name for use by a skeptical group. He was never, for example, a CSICOP Fellow, though I'm sure they asked him just as they asked Murray Gell-Mann, who has been listed as a CSICOP Fellow since Skeptical Inquirer vol. 9, no. 3, Spring 1985.) "Oh, like everyone else, I used to parrot, and on occasion, still do." -- Al Seckel (interview with Jeffrey Epstein) Corrected 22 July 2015--original mistakenly said Maxwell was Australian. Update 22 September 2015--an obituary has been published for Al Seckel, stating that he died in France on an unspecified date earlier this year, but there are as yet no online French death records nor French news stories reporting his death. The obituary largely mirrors content put up on alseckel.net, a domain that was registered on September 18 by a user using Perfect Privacy LLC (domaindiscreet.com) to hide their information. (That in itself is not suspicious, it is generally a good practice for individuals who own domain names to protect their privacy with such mechanisms and I do it myself.) Update 24 September 2015: French police, via the U.S. consulate, confirmed the death of Al Seckel on July 1, 2015. His body was found at the bottom of a cliff in the village of Saint-Cirq-Lapopie. Update 21 December 2015: A timeline of Al Seckel's activities may be found here. Update 14 April 2022: Al Seckel's death has been declared a suicide. Update 19 November 2025: Robert Sheaffer's recollections of Al Seckel including being plagiarized by him as noted above can be found here. Geoff Coupe (2015-07-22): Robert Maxwell, while deceased, was not Australian - he was born in Czechoslovakia and became British. I think you are confusing him with another R. M. - Rupert Murdoch ...

I just stumbled across an old Usenet post of mine which summarizes a small part of the CSICOP conference held in Seattle June 23-26, 1994 (PDF of conference program; PDF of conference announcement mailing) with Robert Sheaffer’s reply. I don’t recall if I wrote the further followups, and didn’t find any in a brief search. My 1992 Dallas CSICOP conference summary and a number of others may be found at the Index of Conference Summaries on this blog. ...

In his recent talk at the American Atheist convention on skepticism and atheism, Matt Dillahunty states (at about five minutes in) that skepticism does tell us what to believe in the case of untestable claims–that the default position is disbelief. But no, the default position has to be nonbelief, not disbelief. To disbelieve in a proposition is to believe in the negation of the proposition, to believe that the original proposition is false. And Dillahunty already said that (a) we should proportion our belief to the evidence and that (b) the proposition in question is untestable, meaning there is no evidence for or against it. The position he describes is logically inconsistent. We know that there are untestable propositions that are true. We shouldn’t believe that they are false simply because they are untestable. We should only believe they are false if we have good reasons to believe they are false; in the absence of that we should be agnostic. (Added 5:36 p.m.: What are the implications for the above argument if it is the case that untestability does not entail lack of evidence or reasons? What about if we distinguish evidential from non-evidential reasons? And if we take the latter course, what does that say about proposition (a), above? Left as an exercise for commenters.) ...

One of the more interesting and better documented cases of surprisingly accurate information from a spirit medium that is described in Deborah Blum's fascinating book, Ghost Hunters: William James and the Search for Scientific Proof of Life After Death (2006, Penguin Books), is the case of Isaac Funk and the Widow's Mite (pp. 260-262). Funk, of Funk & Wagnall's Dictionary, had been visiting a medium in Brooklyn, New York in February 1903.  About his third visit, he subsequently described the following (in Isaac K. Funk, The Widow's Mite and Other Psychic Phenomena (1904, Funk & Wagnalls), pp. 159-160, now in the public domain due to copyright expiration): About eleven o'clock the control named "George," in his usual strong masculine voice, abruptly asked: "Has anyone here got anything that belonged to Mr. Beecher?" There was no reply. On his emphatic repetition of the question, I replied, being the only one present, as I felt sure, who had ever had any immediate acquaintance with Mr. Beecher: "I have in my pocket a letter from Rev. Dr. Hillis, Mr. Beecher's successor.  Is that what you mean?"  The answer was: "No; I am told by a spirit present, John Rakestraw, that Mr. Beecher, who is not present, is concerned about an ancient coin, 'The Widow's Mite.' This coin is out of its place, and should be returned. It has long been away, and Mr. Beecher wishes it returned, and he looks to you, doctor, to return it."  I was considerably surprised, and asked: "What do you mean by saying that he looks to me to return it? I have no coin of Mr. Beecher's!"  "I don't know anything about it except that I am told that this coin is out of place, and has been for a number of years, and that Mr. Beecher says you can find it and return it." I remembered then that when we were making "The Standard Dictionary," some nine years before, I had borrowed from a gentleman in Brooklyn--a close friend of Mr. Beecher's, who died several years ago--a valuable ancient coin known as "The Widow's Mite."  He told me that this coin was worth hundreds of dollars, and, under promise that I would see that it was returned to the collection where it belonged, he would loan it to me. ...  I said to the control, "The only 'Widow's Mite' that has ever been in my charge was one that I borrowed some years ago from a gentleman in Brooklyn; this I promptly returned"; to which the control replied:  "This one has not been returned." And then, after a moment's silence, he said: "Do you know whether there is a large iron safe in Plymouth Church?"  I answered: "I do not."  He said: "I am impressed that this coin is in a large iron safe, that it has been lost sight of; it is in a drawer in this safe under a lot of papers, and that you can find it, and Mr. Beecher wishes you to find it."  I said: "Do you mean that this safe is in Plymouth Church?"  He said: "I don't know where it is. I am simply impressed that it is in a large iron safe in a drawer under a lot of papers, and has been lost sight of for years, and that you can find it, and Mr. Beecher wishes you to find it. That is all that I can tell you." Funk goes on to inquire of his business manager, who insists that it was returned, and of Mr. Wagnalls and Wheeler, who knew nothing of the coin, but Wheeler, a skeptic, suggests that it's a good test.  Funk asks a cashier, who remembers the coin, but also says that it had been returned, to investigate.  After twenty minutes, the cashier returns with an envelope containing two "Widow's Mites," which was located in one of two safes (the large iron one), in a drawer under papers. The two coins are a smaller light-colored one and a larger black one, and Funk recalls that the smaller one was used for the illustration in the dictionary and that it was the genuine article, while the other was a fake.  He returns to the medium, and asks which coin is the right one.  Contrary to his belief, the medium (as "George") says that it is the black one, and that the friend of Mr. Beecher's to whom it belongs is a man associated with a large ladies' school in Brooklyn Heights.  Funk recalls that it was borrowed from Prof. Charles E. West, head of a ladies' school in Brooklyn Heights. Funk sends both coins to the Philadelphia Mint for examination, and they determine that the medium is correct, the black one is the correct one, and the wrong one was used for the illustration in the dictionary. Funk notes that the preface of the dictionary notes, regarding the illustrations, contains the description "The Widow's Mite (which was engraved from an excellent original coin in the possession of Prof. Charles E. West of Brooklyn, N.Y.)." Funk's book provides a number of affidavits supporting the recounting of events, including that only two people present with the medium knew of Funk's connection to the coin (Funk and Irving Roney, the latter of whom provided an affidavit), that no one knew that the coin had not been returned, and that the cashier staff had no knowledge of the coin which was in the safe in their office. The coin was returned to West's son, who also provides an affidavit stating that he was unaware that the coin had not been returned and assumed that it had been.  Funk says he dined repeatedly with the elder West prior to his death, and the coin was never brought up. Funk proceeds to list a series of facts about the case and some possible explanations (pp. 168ff), and finds difficulties with fraud, coincidence, telepathy and clairvoyance, and spirit communications as explanations, though he appears to favor the last of these. Funk presented the case to a number of eminent scientists of the day, including William James, Alfred Russell Wallace, and William Crookes, of which those listed were all associated with the SPR or ASPR and each suggested spirits as a possible explanation.  Many of the other scientists and philosophers, however, suggested fraud or deception (see table in Funk's book, pp. 177-178). As presented in Blum's book, this case seems more impressive than it does with all of the details in Funk's account.  What I find suspicious are that the medium is located in the same city as the person from whom the coin was borrowed, that the connection between the owner of the coin and the illustration was published in Funk's dictionary (omitted by Blum), and that although the son had forgotten about the coin being loaned out, he thought "it altogether likely that his father told at the time other members of his family, and possibly some persons outside the family" (Funk, p. 174).  All that it would take for the fraud hypothesis would be that the medium had heard, second-hand, about the never-returned coin, and speculated that it had been forgotten and was kept in a safe (and perhaps offered a guess about which coin was genuine; that information has no clear source from the details recounted).  Funk infers that because West never brought up the coin that he had forgotten about it, but that is an assumption on his part--perhaps West made periodic complaints about it not having been returned, but didn't mention it to his son.  Funk suggests, based on class distinctions, that no one in the medium circle other than himself would have known that West even existed, which seems a highly questionable assumption.

My talk from January 19, 2013 to the National Capitol Area Skeptics is now online! Thanks very much to the NCAS for professionally recording and editing this video. I’ve included some notes and comments below. 0:50 & 42:29 "Advanced Teachings" available at all Advanced Orgs are up to OT V. Advanced Orgs can deliver through OT V; OT VI & VII can only be obtained at the Flag Service Organization (FSO) in Clearwater, FL, and OT VIII can only be obtained on Scientology's cruise ship, the Freewinds. See: http://www.xenu.net/archive/ot/ 8:01 German U-boat -- I should have said Japanese submarine 9:14 Photo is often claimed to be from 1968 but is really from 1959-60, so Cleve Backster probably wasn't the source of Hubbard's claim, as I originally said in the talk (also see my previous blog post on this topic). 10:53 Aleister Crowley is pronounced "crow-lee," not "craugh-lee" (I have apparently have not broken a bad habit of following Ozzy Osbourne's pronunciation). 13:59 the Fraser Mansion, though referred to by Scientology as the "founding church" from the 1970s to 2010, wasn't the original building. The original building, at 1812 19th St. NW, is now a museum called the L. Ron Hubbard House (though his house was across the street), which the church acquired in 2004. The Fraser Mansion is now Scientology's National Affairs Office. 14:11 The first use of the name "Church of Scientology" was by the Church of Scientology founded in Camden, N.J. in Dec. 1953; the first Church of Scientology corporation was in Los Angeles (Feb. 1954, which became the Church of Scientology of California in 1956), the Church of Scientology of Arizona was incorporated that same year. Hubbard's organization while he lived in Phoenix was the Hubbard Association of Scientologists, International (HASI), founded in Sep. 1952. All HASI assets were folded into the Church of Scientology of California in 1966. 31:07 "Division 20" should have been "Department 20." 32:43 "bad status" -- Scientology "conditions" are a scale, like the tone scale, that your "ethics" are in, which are positive or negative. For each condition there is a "conditions formula" you are supposed to apply to get to the next better condition. Those assigned to the RPF are put in a condition of "liability" (the rag on arm mentioned is a sign of the condition of liability). See: http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dst/Library/Shelf/wakefield/us-11.html 41:07 PIs following the Broekers--mainly Pat Broeker; after one apparent attempt to leave (described in Lawrence Wright's book, Going Clear), Annie Broeker remained in Scientology until her death. Tony Ortega describes the testimony of the two PIs, who spoke out for one day before their lawsuit with Scientology was settled: http://tonyortega.org/2012/11/29/scientologys-master-spies/ 43:22 Lawrence Wright's book says that "Int Base" and "Gold Base" are two different bases at the same location; "Int" being the international headquarters and "Gold" named after Golden Era Studios. 1:05:35 "dog was drowned" -- Judge Swearinger's dog, Duke, a miniature collie, drowned, it's not certain that it "was drowned." 1:07:10 "unable to attend uncle's funeral" -- Hubbard died on January 24, 1986; the Challenger explosion was January 28, 1986. 1:17:43 St. Louis Ideal Org.  The pictured Masonic Temple is not the St. Louis Ideal Org, which is still under construction. (Thanks to ThetanBait on YouTube for this correction.) Narconon's drug purification program involves vitamin (esp. niacin) megadoses, but "injections" is not correct. Historical Comments Alan (2013-03-10): Saw your last presentation in town, and was great seeing it again with the updates. I think you got better questions this time, too. Thanks for posting this. – Alan ...

The title of this post is the title of my multi-book review article in the current issue of Skeptic magazine, which is primarily about last year’s Inside Scientology: The Story of America’s Most Secretive Religion by Janet Reitman and The Church of Scientology: A History of a New Religion by Hugh Urban. It’s a very long article for a book review in the magazine, running from pp. 18-27 with a couple of sidebars and a couple pages of footnotes. What I had in mind when I started writing it wasn’t what I ended up with–my envisioned article would probably be more like a book that tells the story of Scientology’s two wars with the Internet, which Reitman only devoted a few paragraphs to. (If that never happens, the best place to find the information in question is in the writings of Village Voice editor Tony Ortega, who has done more than anyone to cover those topics.) I also would have liked to have done a bit more analysis of Urban’s book, which I think is a bit wishy-washy in places in the name of academic objectivity, and makes a few promises at the beginning that it fails to deliver on as though it were rushed to completion. But I think it came out OK, and I recommend Reitman’s book as the best and most up-to-date single overview of Scientology and its history, and Urban’s for its coverage of Scientology’s battles with the IRS for religious tax exemption and its contribution to explaining what Hubbard was up to when he created Scientology. I think Hubbard died believing his own nonsense, because some Scientology doctrines literally became true for him–he was the one person in Scientology who really could dream things up and make them happen around him, through the efforts of his devotees. I also hoped to devote a bit more space to what I allude to in my first footnote, referencing John Searle’s The Construction of Social Reality, pp. 90-93 and 117-119, about how institutions can quickly collapse when collective agreement about social facts is undermined, as seems to be happening at an accelerating pace within the Church of Scientology. (All posts on Scientology at this blog–65 so far since 2005–can be found here. An overview of my involvement in Scientology’s battles with the Internet is in my 2006 “Scientology Sampler” post, which was updated with a 2009 post, “Scientology v. the Internet history lesson.") UPDATE (26 January 2012): Tony Ortega, editor-in-chief at the Village Voice and prolific investigative journalist on the subject of Scientology, says very nice things about my article and Michael Shermer’s associated article in Skeptic at his “Runnin’ Scared” blog, where there are lots of comments. This issue of Skeptic should be available in all Barnes & Noble stores beginning around the first of February.

A few prominent skeptics have been arguing that science and medicine should rely upon Bayesian epistemology. Massimo Pigliucci, in his book Nonsense on Stilts, on the Rationally Speaking podcast, and in his column in the Skeptical Inquirer, has suggested that scientists should best proceed with a Bayesian approach to updating their beliefs. Steven Novella and Kimball Atwood at the Science-Based Medicine blog (and at the Science-Based Medicine workshops at The Amazing Meeting) have similarly argued that what distinguishes Science-Based Medicine from Evidence-Based Medicine is the use of a Bayesian approach in accounting for the prior plausibility of theories is superior to simply relying upon the outcomes of randomized controlled trials to determine what’s a reasonable medical treatment. And, in the atheist community, Richard Carrier has argued for a Bayesian approach to history, and in particular for assessing claims of Christianity (though in the linked-to case, this turned out to be problematic and error-ridden). It’s worth observing that Bayesian epistemology has some serious unresolved problems, including among them the problem of prior probabilities and the problem of considering new evidence to have a probability of 1 [in simple conditionalization]. The former problem is that the prior assessment of the probability of a hypothesis plays a huge factor in the outcome of whether a hypothesis is accepted, and whether that prior probability is based on subjective probability, “gut feel,” old evidence, or arbitrarily selected to be 0.5 can produce different outcomes and doesn’t necessarily lead to concurrence even over a large amount of agreement on evidence. So, for example, Stephen Unwin has argued using Bayes’ theorem for the existence of God (starting with a prior probability of 0.5), and there was a lengthy debate between William Jefferys and York Dobyns in the Journal of Scientific Exploration about what the Bayesian approach yields regarding the reality of psi which didn’t yield agreement. The latter problem, of new evidence, is that a Bayesian approach considers new evidence to have a probability of 1, but evidence can itself be uncertain. And there are other problems as well–a Bayesian approach to epistemology seems to give special privilege to classical logic, not properly account for old evidence [(or its reduction in probability due to new evidence)] or the introduction of new theories, and not be a proper standard for judgment of rational belief change of human beings for the same reason on-the-spot act utilitarian calculations aren’t a proper standard for human moral decision making–it’s not a method that is practically psychologically realizable. The Bayesian approach has certainly been historically useful, as Desiree Schell’s interview with Sharon Bertsch McGrane, author of The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy, demonstrates. But before concluding that Bayesianism is the objective rational way for individuals or groups to determine what’s true, it’s worth taking a look at the problems philosophers have pointed out for making it the central thesis of epistemology. (Also see John L. Pollock and Joseph Cruz, Contemporary Theories of Knowledge, 2nd edition, Rowman & Littlefield, 1999, which includes a critique of Bayesian epistemology.) UPDATE (August 6, 2013): Just came across this paper by Brandon Fitelson (PDF) defending Bayesian epistemology against some of Pollock’s critiques (in Pollock’s Nomic Probability book, which I’ve read, and in his later Thinking About Acting, which I’ve not read). A critique of how Bayesianism (and not really Bayesian epistemology in the sense defended by Fitelson) is being used by skeptics is here. ...