S&P's Enron moment

IM conversation between two Standard & Poore’s employees, April 2007, as revealed in testimony before Congress today: Shannon Mooney: i didn’t really notice…but now that i think about it i kindof tune her out when she talks Rahul Dilip Shah: well she just is too political…and she doesn’t have anything of substance to say…but keeps thinking that she does. Rahul Dilip Shah: (I’m done venting now) :) Shannon Mooney: k go take a nap Shannon Mooney: see you later Rahul Dilip Shah: ok Rahul Dilip Shah: btw - that deal is ridiculous Shannon Mooney: i know right…model def does not capture half of the rish Shannon Mooney: risk Rahul Dilip Shah: we should not be rating it Shannon Mooney: we rate every deal Shannon Mooney: it could be structured by cows and we would rate it Rahul Dilip Shah: but there’s a lot of risk associated with it - I don’t personally feel comfy signing off as a committee member.(Via the Big Picture blog and The Epicurean Dealmaker. The latter has a pictorial illustration that I like, Mark Tansey’s “The Innocent Eye Test”; the former has links to the transcript.)

October 22, 2008 · 1 min

Prosperity theology created foreclosure victims?

An article at Time magazine suggests that those following the “prosperity theology” of some Pentecostal ministers are more likely than average to have obtained mortgages they cannot afford, leading to foreclosure: Has the so-called Prosperity gospel turned its followers into some of the most willing participants – and hence, victims – of the current financial crisis? That’s what a scholar of the fast-growing brand of Pentecostal Christianity believes. While researching a book on black televangelism, says Jonathan Walton, a religion professor at the University of California at Riverside, he realized that Prosperity’s central promise – that God will “make a way” for poor people to enjoy the better things in life – had developed an additional, dangerous expression during the subprime-lending boom. Walton says that this encouraged congregants who got dicey mortgages to believe “God caused the bank to ignore my credit score and blessed me with my first house.” The results, he says, “were disastrous, because they pretty much turned parishioners into prey for greedy brokers."Yet another case of religious trust being exploited to victimize those who have it. (Via Dispatches from the Culture Wars.) ...

October 7, 2008 · 2 min

Bailout bill bonuses

The bailout bill has a few extra features: * Sec. 105. Energy credit for geothermal heat pump systems. * Sec. 111. Expansion and modification of advanced coal project investment credit. * Sec. 113. Temporary increase in coal excise tax; funding of Black Lung Disability Trust Fund. * Sec. 115. Tax credit for carbon dioxide sequestration. * Sec. 205. Credit for new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles. * Sec. 405. Increase and extension of Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund tax. * Sec. 309. Extension of economic development credit for American Samoa. * Sec. 317. Seven-year cost recovery period for motorsports racing track facility. * Sec. 501. $8,500 income threshold used to calculate refundable portion of child tax credit. * Sec. 503 Exemption from excise tax for certain wooden arrows designed for use by children.It also includes tax credits for solar and wind power, a requirement that health insurance companies cover mental health the same way they cover physical health (so look for some huge premium increases on your health insurance). And during all the bailout bill discussion, Congress quietly authorized another $612 billion defense authorization bill. (Via The Agitator.) ...

October 3, 2008 · 3 min

Barney Frank and the financial crisis

The New York Times, September 11, 2003: "These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'" said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. "The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing." The Washington Post, November 7, 2003: Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, said the administration's position is driven by concerns about the financial safety and soundness of the companies "to the exclusion of concern about housing." Committee members were ready to support legislation that would give the Treasury Department oversight of Fannie and Freddie, as the administration has sought, Frank said, not power over the companies' housing activities, which are regulated by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Now he seems to have forgotten what he said back then, and the fact that he was encouraging the moral hazard created by the GSEs encouraging and buying up bad loans. UPDATE: A friend points out this post at the Big Picture blog by Barry Ritholtz arguing that the Community Reinvestment Act and GSEs had nothing to do with the housing bubble. While I think Ritholtz makes some excellent points that demonstrate there were other factors, he doesn't really address the GSE moral hazard issue and he makes this statement that seems to me to offer a striking disconnect from reality: "The four biggest problem areas for housing (by price decreases) are: Phoenix, Arizona; Las Vegas, Nevada; Miami, Florida, and San Diego, California. Explain exactly how these affluent, non-minority regions were impacted by the Community Reinvestment Act ?" All of those cities have very large non-affluent minority populations. I'm most familiar with Phoenix, where the housing bubble was marked by expansion of housing into South Phoenix (where I live), Gilbert, Mesa, Queen Creek, Surprise, and other outlying areas around Phoenix which have very large Hispanic populations. Also see my comment below about mortgage broker telemarketing targeting low-income areas of town with minority majorities. He wants to place the blame on deregulation, but if you need to find a single cause, I think the Fed keeping interest rates too low is a better root cause. My own experience regarding telemarketing showed that there existed regulations that could have been applied to the sleazy telemarketers that simply weren't being enforced. When you have an enforcement problem, all the regulations in the world won't help, in fact adding more regulations is likely to increase the severity of your enforcement problem. UPDATE (November 21, 2011): Barry Ritholtz argues persuasively that the Community Reinvestment Act had nothing to do with the housing bubble.  He also downplays the role for the GSEs, though I think they had a contributory role (which is also what the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission concluded) to play in increasing the size of the bubble--they purchased half of the U.S. mortgage market by 2008, $5.1T in loans, including $90B-$175B/year in subprime and Alt-A between 2002 and 2006.  But the above analysis overlooks other important factors including the repeal of Glass-Steagall, the 2004 SEC decision to reduce capitalization requirements on investment banks, the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 which allowed credit default swaps with little regulatory oversight, and inaccurate credit ratings from the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations.  Wikipedia's entry on "Subprime mortgage crisis" has a good referenced list. cowmix (2008-10-01): Jim.. This thread on ask.metafilter.com (which I started) is sort of on topic to your post here..http://ask.metafilter.com/103119/Did-FannieFreddie-cause-this-mess ...

October 1, 2008 · 6 min

HUD zero down payment mortgages

Craig Cantoni has pointed out the following January 19, 2004 press release from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development: BUSH ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES NEW HUD “ZERO DOWN PAYMENT” MORTGAGE Initiative Aimed at Removing Major Barrier to Homeownership LAS VEGAS - As part of President Bush’s ongoing effort to help American families achieve the dream of homeownership, Federal Housing Commissioner John C. Weicher today announced that HUD is proposing to offer a “zero down payment” mortgage, the most significant initiative by the Federal Housing Administration in over a decade. This action would help remove the greatest barrier facing first-time homebuyers - the lack of funds for a down payment on a mortgage. ...

September 20, 2008 · 2 min

August's Notices of Trustee's Sales

As Jim pointed out here, Maricopa County saw another record month for pre-foreclosures - though AZ Central’s count is different than mine. I can only tell you what I get from the recorder’s office (which was 7286). <img style=“display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;” src="/images/08AugNTRs.jpg" border=“0” alt=““id=“BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5245866439526765986” />

September 14, 2008 · 1 min

Foreclosures hit a record high

CNN reports: Foreclosures hit another record high in August: 304,000 homes were in default and 91,000 families lost their houses. More than 770,000 homes have been repossessed by lenders since August 2007, when the credit crunch took hold. The report from RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosures properties, is the latest in string of bad news for housing. Foreclosure filings of all kinds, including notices of defaults, notices of auctions and bank repossessions, grew 12% in August over July, and 27% compared with August 2007. ...

September 12, 2008 · 1 min

Bobcats taking over foreclosed homes

See the story at BLDGBLOG. (Thanks for the link, Reed!)

September 5, 2008 · 1 min

A deceptive mortgage refinance offer

I received a letter in the mail from Chase Bank offering me a fee waiver on a mortgage refinance to “lower [my] monthly payments,” “to save interest,” and to “Save up to $1,000 in waived fees." The letter gives me two options for “a fixed-rate first mortgage tailored to fit [my] needs - and with a new low rate.” Option one is a 20-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.13% (6.26% APR) with a payment of principal and interest that is described as giving me “monthly payment savings” of $178 and “total annual savings” of $2,132. Option two is a 10-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5.63% (5.80% APR) that is described as giving me “total interest savings” of $12,817. There’s just one problem with this. My current mortgage is a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5.25%. I currently make extra principal payments every month so I am paying more than what my new monthly payment would be for option two of their refinance offer, the 10-year fixed-rate mortgage. This means that both option one and option two are losers–neither will save me a cent. If I keep doing what I’m doing now, I’ll have my mortgage paid off in nine years, paying less in interest and in total than in either option one or option two. By choosing option one I could choose to pay less per month without being penalized (except due to the higher interest rate), but I’d pay significantly more over the term of the loan–more than $50,000 more. By choosing option two, the “total interest savings” would only occur by comparison to my current loan if I were not making extra principal payments. But compared to what I’m actually doing, it again would cost a bit more (by a few thousand dollars), and I wouldn’t have the flexibility of paying less in a given month if necessary that I have now with my current loan. In short, Chase Bank has knowingly sent me an offer with two options that will cost me more money than my current loan, given how I am currently paying it off (and have been for as long as I’ve had the loan). But they’ve tried to describe them to me as though they will save me money, when they won’t. Don’t accept one of these offers unless you either need to (e.g., it will give you lower monthly payments and you’re struggling to make your current payments) or it will genuinely save you money in the long term (e.g., it has a lower interest rate that saves you more than any fees that may be rolled into the new loan).

August 10, 2008 · 3 min

July's Pre-foreclosure Numbers

I bought my first house 10 years ago, in July, 1998. Prior to the purchase I was living in a nearby apartment complex, paying $435/month for a 2-bedroom, 1 bath. I (over)paid $86,500 for the house, putting 3% down, so my monthly payments, at roughly $600, were ~35% higher than my rent–a reasonable premium to me, considering I’d suddenly be living and building equity in “my own place." Today, zillow.com says the house is worth about $192,000, and monthly payments at 3% down would come to just under $1300/month. By comparison, you can still rent that 2 bedroom apartment for around $600. Doing the same math again, I don’t think I’d come to the conclusion that the “ownership premium” is really worth it. Would you? You might be wondering what my little story has to do with July’s notices of trustee’s sales–which, at 6412, as you can see from the graph, were lower than June’s. Bush’s housing bailout bill recently became law, which may mean that we have just passed the peak for home foreclosures–and soon we may even see a stop to falling home prices. Great news for current home owners, but, as my personal anecdote suggests, not-so-great news for housing affordability in general. The bailout essentially is a subsidy to current home owners at the expense of future home owners. Because it will prop up current prices beyond where they would have naturally fallen, housing affordability will remain low, encouraging the spawning of all sorts of new government programs to help address “the affordability gap” (or some such wealth-transfer justificationist nonsense)–making money cheaper than it actually is, which will in turn encourage sellers to raise their prices still further while at the same time creating homeowners out of people who probably aren’t fiscally responsible enough to be ones. Is this sounding familiar, yet? As a non-homeowner who is making twice what he made in 1998 but would have an extremely hard time justifying paying $1300/month to own a crappy house, I would have preferred if Congress could’ve just left well enough alone. ...

August 3, 2008 · 7 min
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