Finance

  Not much blogging going on here still, but here's my annual list of books read for 2024. James Bamford, Spy Fail: Foreign Spies, Moles, Saboteurs, and the Collapse of America's Counterintelligence (2023)Benjamin Breen, Tripping on Utopia: Margaret Mead, The Cold War and the Troubled Birth of Psychedelic ScienceJennifer Burns, Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative (2023)Bryan Burrough, Vendetta: American Express and the Smearing of Edmond Safra (1992)Ron Chernow, The House of Morgan: An American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance (1990, 2010 foreword)Rich Cohen, The Fish That Ate the Whale: The Life and Times of America's Banana King (2012)Daniel C. Dennett, I've Been Thinking (2023)Cory Doctorow, The Bezzle (fiction)Edward Dolnick, Down the Great Unknown: John Wesley Powell's 1869 Journey of Discovery and Tragedy Through the Grand Canyon (2002)Jon Friedman & John Meehan, House of Cards: Inside the Troubled Empire of American Express (1992)Beverly Gage, G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century (2022)John Ganz, When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, and How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990sMasha Gessen, The Future Is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia (2017)Martin Kihn, House of Lies: How Management Consultants Steal Your Watch and Then Tell You the Time (2005)Stephen Kinzer, Poisoner in Chief: Sidney Gottlieb and the CIA Search for Mind Control (2020)Stephen Kinzer, The True Flag: Theodore Roosevelt, Mark Twain, and the Birth of American Empire (2017)Talia Lavin, Wild Faith: How the Christian Right is Taking Over AmericaMilton Mayer, They Thought They Were Free: The Germans 1933-45 (1955)Michael Warren Lucas, git commit murder (2017, fiction)Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can't, and How to Tell the DifferenceCraig Nelson, Thomas Paine: Enlightenment, Revolution, and the Birth of Modern Nations (2006)Ryan J. Reilly, Sedition Hunters: How January 6th Broke the Justice System (2023)Chris Rodda, Liars for Jesus: The Religious Right's Alternate Version of American History, Volume 2 (2016)Zoë Schiffer, Extremely Hardcore: Inside Elon Musk's TwitterMatt Zwolinski and John Tomasi, The Individualists: Radicals, Reactionaries, and the Struggle for the Soul of LibertarianismTop for 2024 published in 2024: Doctorow, Breen, Ganz; other top reads for the year: Gage, Dennett, Kinzer (2020), Cohen, Gessen, Rodda A few non-books of relevance for 2025: What the Southern Baptists used to believe, but no longer do: https://www.sbc.net/resource-library/resolutions/resolution-on-moral-character-of-public-officials/Umberto Eco, "Ur-Fascism," New York Review of Books, June 22, 1995Dorothy Thompson, "Who Goes Nazi," Harper's Magazine, August 1941 (but contrast with Mayer 1955 and Gessen 2017 above) A few planned or already (or still) in-progress reads for 2024: G.A. Cohen, Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality (1995)John Ferris, Behind the Enigma: The Authorised History of GCHQ, Britain's Secret Cyber-Intelligence Agency (2020)Peter H. Wilson, The Holy Roman Empire: A Thousand Years of Europe's History (2017)Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 (2006)Arthur M. Melzer, Philosophy Between the Lines: The Lost History of Esoteric Writing (2014)Mark S. Weiner, The Rule of the Clan: What an Ancient form of Social Organization Reveals About the Future of Individual Freedom (2013)(Previously: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.) 

Not much blogging going on here still, but here's my annual list of books read for 2020.Nicholson Baker, Baseless: My Search for Secrets in the Ruins of the Freedom of Information ActJohn Bolton, The Room Where It Happened: A White House MemoirBen Buchanan, The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics Susannah Cahalan, The Great Pretender: The Undercover Mission That Changed Our Understanding of MadnessMichael Cohen, Disloyal: The True Story of the Former Personal Attorney to President Donald J. TrumpMyke Cole, Legion versus Phalanx: The Epic Struggle for Infantry Supremacy in the Ancient World Libby Copeland, The Lost Family: How DNA Testing Is Upending Who We Are Barton Gellman, Dark Mirror: Edward Snowden and the Surveillance StateFiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (2012)James W. Johnson, Arizona Politicians: The Noble and the Notorious (2002) Gene Kim, The Unicorn Project: A Novel about Developers, Digital Disruption, and Thriving in the Age of Data Maria Konnikova, The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and WinTalia Lavin, Culture Warlords: My Journey Into the Dark Web of White Supremacy Carol D. Leonnig and Philip Rucker, A Very Stable Genius: Donald J. Trump's Testing of America Ben Macintyre, The Spy and the Traitor: The Greatest Espionage Story of the Cold War (2018) Nancy MacLean, Democracy in Chains: The Deep History of the Radical Right's Stealth Plan for America (2017)H. Keith Melton and Robert Wallace, with Henry R. Schlesinger, Spy Sites of New York City: A Guide to the Region's Secret History (2020)Jefferson Morley, Morley v. CIA: My Unfinished JFK InvestigationBastian Obermayer and Frederik Obermaier, The Panama Papers: Breaking the Story of How the Rich & Powerful Hide Their Money Thomas Rid, Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare Brad Smith and Carol Anne Browne, Tools and Weapons: The Promise and Peril of the Digital AgeMary Trump, Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man Robert Wallace and H. Keith Melton with Henry R. Schesinger, Spy Sites of Washington, DC: A Guide to the Capital Region's Secret History (2017) Anna Wiener, Uncanny Valley: A MemoirIsabel Wilkerson, Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents Top for 2020: Copeland, Macintyre, Cahalan, Smith and Browne, Buchanan, Obermayer and Obermaier, Gellman, Rid. I started the following books I expect to finish in 2021 (yes, I also said that about LeFeber and Wilson last year--I'm well in to LaFeber's book and thought I might finish before the end of the year, but had only read Wilson's intro so it's barely started): William Dalrymple, The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence, and the Pillage of an Empire Walter LaFeber, Inevitable Revolutions: The United States in Central America (2nd edition) Peter H. Wilson, The Holy Roman Empire: A Thousand Years of Europe's History I've also pre-ordered and am looking forward to reading: Nicole Perlroth, This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends: The Cyberweapon Arms Race (due to be published on February 9) (Previously: 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.)

The assets of Premise Media, including rights to “Expelled,” are going up for auction. The Talk Origins Foundation plans to bid for the film, which includes production materials. Their stated plan seems to be just to determine what interesting information might be in the production materials or raw footage and make that known, not, as I’ve suggested, make an “MST3K”-style version, or a version that points out and corrects the errors. UPDATE (June 28, 2011): The winning bid for “Expelled” was $201,000. My guess is that the film would only be worth that much to somebody who plans to promote it as-is without any significant re-editing, and thinks they can extract at least that much value out of it–perhaps via charitable deduction by giving it to a creationist organization. There was a bidding war at the end between two bidders that drove the price up this morning from $43,000 (last night’s high bid) to $201,000, which caused the bid to be extended 10 minutes beyond it’s scheduled end time in one or two minute extension increments. It was at $122,000 at the original auction end time, so that last $79,000 increase occurred in the last 10 minutes. ...

On May 22, 2011, we will either see that many Christians have disappeared and we've been left behind, or that the claims of billboards like this are completely false.  If any individual or group of Camping followers have a strong belief that the former is the case, I challenge you to sign an agreement to transfer to me $100,000, effective May 22, 2011, in return for one of two things.  In the case that you have, in fact, been raptured, I promise to use those funds to evangelize in support of your beliefs to try to save as many of those left behind as possible.  In the far more likely case that you remain behind, I promise not to engage in public ridicule and humiliation of your nonsense for a year.  So it's a win-win.  Any takers? UPDATE (May 20, 2011):  Via Tom McIver:  "Camping has a very idiosyncratic scheme: basically amillennial, and a hybrid of his own Bible numerology and a variant of the World Week (world lasts 6,000 yrs after Creation) framework. Camping puts Creation at 11,013 BC, Flood at 6,000 + 23 yrs later at 4,990 BC, Christ's birth 7 BC, and end of Church Age / beginning of Tribulation 13,000 yrs after Creation. 7,000 yrs after Flood (13,000 + 23 yrs after Creation) is 2011. 1988--13,000 yrs after Creation--was beginning of Tribulation (and also the year Camping left the established church, deciding it was heretical and that all churches had been taken over by Antichrist). 2011 is 23 yrs after 1988 (previously, Camping had predicted a shorter Tribulation ending in 1994). May 21 is Rapture and Judgment Day, world is destroyed Oct 21." And: "Camping also made much of 1948 (founding of Israel), with next Jubilee supposedly 1994. He has much more numerology as well. Interestingly, he doesn't focus on political leaders or natural disasters (although I think the news reports of catastrophes and wars has increased his following)." Eamon Knight (2011-05-15): Predictions (which I guarantee you have more chance of coming true than Camping's): No one will take you up on your offer. Come next Sunday, there will be dead silence from the Camping, um, camp. Few or none will say "Oops, we were wrong; sorry" – same as they did in 1994. ...

A few years ago, I noted that popular and wealthy libertarian investment writer Douglas Casey was making tacit references to L. Ron Hubbard doctrine in his writing. For example, I noted that he wrote (in an article titled “The New Praetorians” in the March 1996 issue of Liberty magazine): I have long believed that about 80% of the human race are basically people of good will.  About 17% can be classified as potential trouble sources--PTS's--who will basically bend with whatever wind prevails.  Only 3% are actively destructive sociopaths.  But that 3% tend to gravitate toward politics, the military, the media, the financial system, and other centers of power."I noted that the term "potential trouble source" (PTS) derives from Hubbard, who also identifies a similar percentages of the population into the categories of PTS and "suppressive persons" (SPs).  In a letter to Liberty which they refused to publish, I noted: L. Ron Hubbard wrote much about "potential trouble sources" (PTS's) and "suppressive persons" (SP's) whom he claimed made up 17.5 and 2.5 percent of the population, respectively (see Jon Atack, A Piece of Blue Sky: Scientology, Dianetics and L. Ron Hubbard Exposed, 1990, Carol Publishing Group. p. 155).  Hubbard's views on PTS's and SP's are set out at length in his book An Introduction to Scientology Ethics, where his definitions of crimes and suppressive acts make it clear that he is no friend of liberty.  The Church of Scientology has a long history of harassment and barratrous litigation against its critics which continues to this day on the Internet (see Spy, February 1996; Wired, December 1995; Skeptic, June 1995; and the Internet resources linked from http://www.thecia.net/~rnewman/scientology/home.html).I've further noted that Casey was on the financial committee of Libertarian Party presidential candidate Harry Browne in 1996, along with Michael Baybak.  Baybak is a Scientology OTVIII who played a major role in a sidebar story to Time magazine's famous 1991 "Cult of Greed and Power" article about Scientology, titled "Mining Money in Vancouver." Finally, I noted that a Scientology-critical website that publishes Scientology service completions shows multiple Scientology courses completed by a Douglas Casey, who may well be the same libertarian investment writer. My objection is not that Casey is a Scientologist, though I think it is legitimate to criticize anyone who knowingly supports the unethical activities of the Church of Scientology.  Rather, my objection is to his making unfounded claims based on Scientology and Hubbard doctrines without being open about his sources.  It's a common tactic by the Church of Scientology and other cults to use front groups and try to conceal their nature until after they've persuaded someone to participate in a program--the Unification Church calls it "heavenly deception."  I've also wondered to what extent Scientology principles are used in Casey's investment advice, and whether Casey has promoted investment in Scientology-related companies, and whether there were any other Scientologists on Browne's financial committee, but I haven't seen any evidence of those things. A recent interview with Casey on his own website points out that he is something of an apologist for the Church of Scientology and Hubbard: L: It actually sparked something of a religion for a time. People were adopting Heinlein's Martian philosophy and starting "crèches" around the country. Do you know if it's true that L. Ron Hubbard, another SF author, founded the church of Scientology as a result of Heinlein betting him he couldn't do it and make it stick? Doug: There's no way to know the actual facts, of course, other than Hubbard started researching Dianetics just after World War II. But they were friends, after all, and both SF writers. The model for the character of Michael Valentine Smith was supposed to have been Hubbard – there were supposed to be a lot of similarities between the two. The religion racket can be an easy way to make a million dollars, but I don't think that was on Hubbard's mind when he founded Scientology. A surprisingly large percentage of the human potential movement was a direct result of his work. He was sincere in promoting it, notwithstanding a lot of negative PR surrounding the subject.Hubbard's sincerity may be legitimately questioned by anyone familiar with his biography.  And I'm not sure "a surprisingly large percentage of the human potential movement" being inspired by Scientology (e.g., est, Landmark Forum, Eckankar, etc.) is to its credit. Last month, the website The Daily Bell published an interview with Casey titled "Doug Casey Revisits the Greater Depression" in which Casey referred to the Roman emperor Tiberius as "a degraded being," another use of Scientology terminology.  This prompted a commenter who identified as an ex-Scientologist to ask if Casey was a Scientologist, and another commenter to point to my website on Casey.  This prompted a response from The Daily Bell: Doug Casey is the author of numerous hard-money/free-market best-sellers and has established himself as a reliable and prominent libertarian-oriented commentator over years and years. He may or may not have Scientology connections (we have no idea) but unlike DC we don't see any overt or even covert evidence of specific dogma infecting his commentary - which is concise, to-the-point and in-line with the free-market message that he's been purveying for decades. Scientology is alleged to be a "bad church." But modern Western governments inflate economies to ruination, cost tens of millions pensions and savings, freely wiretap, prosecute and imprison millions, foment endless authoritarian regulations and illogical laws, mandate poisonous vaccines, engage in punitive taxation and serial warfare, etc. ... We think we would be more concerned if Casey were an apologist for modern Western regulatory democracy rather than a courageous and principled opponent of it. We are grateful for his voice and message, especially during the 20th century when very few spoke out. Again, we have no knowledge of any affiliation of his with Scientology, but we do know what we can read on the printed page. We believe that Casey has contributed greatly to an understanding of free-markets, especially in the 20th century when he emerged courageously as a prominent spokesperson at a time when there were very others. But let us reverse the issue. What is the agenda of those who are bringing up a Scientology link? Casey doesn't mention it. His arguments are the same as they have always been - lucid, elegant and inspiring. In fact, it seems to us a despicable canard - and an obscene red-herring - to read an honest interview freely given and then drag someone's alleged religion into it. It is like questioning one's veracity simply because he or she is Jewish or Roman Catholic. Please respond to what is on the page, not to some malicious or false gossip about someone's supposed religious affiliation with a church that is alleged by some to do bad things - with many accusations coming from Western governments such as France, Germany or the United States.I've submitted the following response comment to The Daily Bell: Since I am here accused of "some malicious or false gossip about someone's supposed religious affiliation with a church that is alleged by some to do bad things" and of "a despicable canard - and an obscene red-herring" and asked "What is the agenda of those who are bringing up a Scientology link?" I would like to respond. My criticism of Casey is not for being a Scientologist, but for injecting Scientology doctrine and claims from L. Ron Hubbard into his writing without being explicit or open about it.  This criticism is neither malicious nor false, but is backed up with specific citations.  Further, the Church of Scientology is not merely "alleged by some to do bad things," it has been caught doing so, which has been repeatedly and thoroughly documented (e.g., its breaking into numerous government offices and engaging in wiretapping, its attempt to frame author Paulette Cooper for a bomb threat which led to her arrest, its illegal covert operations against the mayor of Clearwater, FL, its attempt to cover up its responsibility in the death of Lisa McPherson, its formal policy of harassment using the legal system, and on and on).  Many of the documents that expose Scientology's involvement in such activities were seized in FBI raids in the mid-1970s or have been leaked by ex-members and are available on the Internet at locations such as http://shipbrook.com/jeff/CoS/index.html, http://www.xenu.net/, and http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dst/Secrets/index.htmlThis week will offer an opportunity for many to hear Doug Casey speak at the FreedomFest in Las Vegas, July 7-11 at Bally's/Paris.  If you have some familiarity with Scientology and the writings of L. Ron Hubbard, listen carefully, and let me know if you hear anything of interest. Einzige (2010-07-05): Your point is apparently too subtle for most people, Jim. The whole problem would go away if Casey were just up front about things - "Yes, I am a Scientologist" or "No, I am not, but they have some good things to say." Refusing to comment at all just seems odd. ...

Todd Wood of the Center for Origins Research at Bryan College has gotten around to doing what I haven’t done, updating my analysis of the market for creationism that I did in early 2007. He confirms some of the trends I noted, such as that the market for creationism has been growing and is dominated by Answers in Genesis. His update goes further, and includes a comparison to the National Center for Science Education, noting that he market for criticism of creationism has grown along with the market for creationism. He also points out that the groups involved got a boost revenue in 2005 during the Dover trial, that the AiG split from Creation Ministries International doesn’t appear to have hurt AiG, and that “Godquest,” formerly known as Creation Science Evangelism, the Hovind organization, is the #3 creationist organization for revenue behind AiG and the Institute for Creation Research. Wood reports the following numbers for recent years: ...

The Center for Public Integrity, an organization I support, has just published the results of an investigation into the roots of the recent economic crisis and the major players involved: The top subprime lenders whose loans are largely blamed for triggering the global economic meltdown were owned or backed by giant banks now collecting billions of dollars in bailout money — including several that have paid huge fines to settle predatory lending charges. The banks that funded the subprime industry were not victims of an unforeseen financial collapse, as they have sometimes portrayed themselves, but enablers that bankrolled the type of lending threatening the financial system. … According to the analysis: ...

A nice visual depiction of what it amounts to. (Via The Agitator.) Historical Comments Ktisophilos (2009-05-03): Good one!

At the Financial Times (with more detail for each item): 1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. 2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. 3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. 4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. 5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. 6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . 7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. 8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. 9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. 10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. (Via Will Wilkinson.) ...

A banker who resisted the urge to invest in toxic assets during the boom is cleaning up during the bust. Andy Beal of Beal Bank in Plano, Texas “virtually stopped making or buying loans” from 2004 to 2007, leading people around him to think he was crazy. Now he’s buying up loans at fire sale prices and has tripled his bank’s assets to $7 billion in the last 15 months, and without government bailout money. Beal is also known for high-stakes poker games against the top poker players in the world, in which he has lost more than he’s won, but occasionally taken for a lot of money (including an $11 million win in one day). ...