“Sexpelled tells of how Sex Theory has thrived unchallenged in the ivory towers of academia, as the explanation for how new babies are created. Proponents of Stork Theory claim that ‘Big Sex’ has been suppressing their claim that babies are delivered by storks." (Via Wired’s “Underwire” blog.)
Click the image for the facts that “Expelled” doesn’t give you. This post is a placeholder to report on “Expelled”’s weekend box office and the accuracy of my five predictions about the film, as well as a few more I’ll add here. My five predictions were that “Expelled” will: (1) be on fewer than 800 screens, (2) will have an initial weekend box office of less than $2 million, with (3) a per-screen take of less than $2,500, (4) won’t break the top ten despite it being a slow opening week, and (5) will make less than $10 million in box office take by the end of 2008 (though it may make more than that through DVD sales).Prediction (1) is already falsified, since it’s opening in 1,052 theaters. Prediction (4) may well be wrong due to how weak this weekend is for new films–it’s pretty clear that #1 and #2 will be “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” and “The Forbidden Kingdom.” Al Pacino’s “88 Minutes” is also opening in many theaters and has the draw of its star, but it’s getting terrible reviews. C.S. Strowbridge at The-Numbers estimates that “Expelled” will only need a $3 million opening weekend to make the top ten, so my predictions are at least consistent with each other. Looking at the list of top Christian films below, I see that the most recent “Veggie Tales” movie, “The Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything,” came in at number 6 in January 2008 with an opening weekend of $4.2 million on 1,337 screens. I doubt that “Expelled” will do that well, though I expect (6) it will break the top ten in the Christian films category, probably about to the eighth position. Looking at controversial films, however, I think it’s unlikely to make the top twenty–(7) it will probably end up around 22nd at best, beating “The Last Temptation of Christ.” Documentaries are a bit easier, and it could very well make the top ten, but (8) I wouldn’t expect it to get above the seventh slot. Finally, (9) I expect to see its theater counts drop rapidly starting next week, losing at least 500 theaters by next Friday as its audience sees the film and more popular entries displace it in the new week. UPDATE (April 19, 2008): I expect that predictions (2) and (4) may be falsified; a weekend take of $3-4 million looks likely after Friday’s estimated take of $1,126,000 and its coming in at #8 on Friday. #1-#7 ahead of “Expelled” were: “The Forbidden Kingdom,” “Forgetting Sarah Marshall,” “Prom Night,” “88 Minutes,” “21,” “Nim’s Island,” and “Street Kings.” Prediction (3) looks like it will easily be proven correct; “Expelled” earned $1,070 per-theater on Friday, making it #5 for per-theater take. UPDATE (April 20, 2008): Prediction (2) has been falsified as the current estimated box office take is $3,152,896. Prediction (4) looks like it will be falsified, with “Expelled” barely cracking the top ten–it has been passed by “Horton Hears a Who” and looks like it will be #9 for the weekend. Prediction (3) looks like it will be false, too, though in my defense I intended to predict a per-screen daily average take rather than a per-theater take for the entire weekend. Saturday’s take was $941/theater, versus Friday’s $1,145, and Sunday looks like it will be lower still (projected to be $911/theater). UPDATE (April 21, 2008): “Expelled”’s weekend take has been revised downward from the estimate, to $2,970,848, or $2,824 per-theater. So my prediction (3), taken the way I said it rather than meant it, was not wrong by much. It also came in at #10 for the weekend (#9 was Leatherheads), so prediction (4) was falsified in the most minimal way possible. Predictions (5)-(9) appear to be on solid ground. Sunday’s take was only $737/theater, and it’s all downhill from here. UPDATE (April 24, 2008): The-Numbers has posted its list of theater counts for the weekend of April 25, 2008, and “Expelled” isn’t on the list. I’d guess this means they just don’t have the information yet, rather than that it’s not appearing in any theater (since none of last week’s openers and only one of this weekend’s openers are yet listed), but we’ll soon find out if my prediction (9) is correct and it is down to 552 or fewer theaters. (If Arizona is an indication, the drop may not occur until next week.) Box Office Mojo is now reporting “Expelled”’s theater count at 1,041 for its second weekend, a drop of 11 theaters, which falsifies prediction (9). It looks like it’s not common for a huge drop in theater counts to occur in the first week, so this was probably a dumb prediction unless the movie was a total bomb, which it hasn’t been. I think a 500-theater drop is much more likely for next week, however–call that prediction (10). For this weekend, I suspect we’ll see each day’s average take in the $500-$700 per-theater range, or $500,000-$700,000 total per day; probably closer to the low end, and thus ending the weekend with a total take of between $5.4M and $6M, and leaving prediction (5) accurate unless it turns out to be popular internationally. It will also probably drop out of the top ten starting today. UPDATE (April 26, 2008): “Expelled” began its second weekend with (The-Numbers’ estimate) a $505,000 take ($485/theater) on Friday, even lower than I guessed yesterday. Box Office Mojo’s estimate is even lower: $450,000 ($432/theater). UPDATE (April 27, 2008): The second weekend’s estimated take is $1,378,867 ($1,325/theater, The-Numbers) or $1,379,000 ($1,324/theater, Box Office Mojo), which will put the total at about $5.2M, below the lower end of my guess on Thursday, with a total of about $5.2M. UPDATE (April 28, 2008): The weekend’s estimated take is now $1,395,000 ($1340/theater), with “Expelled” ranked at #13, according to Box Office Mojo. Looks like it followed the more normal pattern with a Saturday peak ($529,000) and less on Friday ($452,000; The-Numbers estimates $505,000 for Friday) and Sunday ($414,000), all still estimates. Today will probably drop well below $200,000. UPDATE (April 29, 2008): Monday’s take was $157,191 ($151/theater), though the rank went up to #12. UPDATE (May 2, 2008): “Expelled” is staying around longer than I would have imagined, but it has now dropped 386 theaters to 655, and its daily box office take will suffer accordingly. It looks like “Expelled” is going to end up doing about the same amount business as “Megiddo: The Omega Code 2,” and not as well as “The End of the Spear,” two Christian movies that were previously distributed by Rocky Mountain Pictures. Prediction (5) looks dead on (less than $10 million in box office by the end of 2008); prediction (6) looks like it was too generous (“Expelled” should easily break into the top ten on Christian films, but it now looks unlikely to reach #9, let alone #8); prediction (7) also looks too generous (hitting #22 on the “controversial” film list; #23 or #24 looks more likely, though Box Office Mojo has decided not to list “Expelled” in that category at all); prediction (8) is easy at this point (it won’t reach #7 on the documentary list; it looks like even breaking into the top 10 is out of reach). So my prediction accuracy was about as good as coin flipping. I was way off on theater count-related predictions, but more accurate on revenue and rank-related predictions. But enough about those predictions. I’ll continue to update this post with the data until it drops completely out of the theaters. Some websites for statistics: “Expelled” box office numbers and rating at The-Numbers: 4/19/2008: “Expelled” came in at #8 for Friday, with an estimated box office take of $1,126,000, and a per-theater take of $1,070 (ranked #5). The-Numbers rating: 3.75/10 (16 votes; 25% rated it 10 and 62.5% rated it 1). 4/20/2008: “Expelled” has dropped to #9 for the weekend, with an estimated box office take of $3,152,896 for the whole weekend, and a per-theater take of $2,997. 4/22/2008: The-Numbers gives different numbers than Box Office Mojo, though their weekend totals agree: Friday: $1,126,000 ($1070/theater), Saturday: $967,000 ($919/theater), Sunday: $878,000 ($835/theater), for an opening weekend total of $2,970,848 ($2,824/theater). Monday: $238,804 ($227/theater). 04/23/2008: Tuesday, April 22: $227,232 ($216/theater). Total: $3,436,884. 04/25/2008: Wednesday, April 23: $234,596 ($223). Thursday, April 24: $231,440 ($220). Friday, April 25: $505,000 ($485), ranked #13. Total: $4,408,000. 4/30/2008: Still no numbers for Saturday or Sunday. Monday, April 28: $157,191 ($151). 5/1/2008: Tuesday, April 29: $162,396 ($156). Wednesday, April 30: $159,273 ($153). 5/2/2008: Thursday, May 1: $158,232 ($152). 5/5/2008: May 2-4 weekend: $683,552 ($1,042/theater). 5/6/2008: Monday, May 5: $66,912 ($102/theater). 5/8/2008: Tuesday, May 6: $74,128 ($113), Wednesday, May 7: $73,472 ($112). 5/9/2008: Thursday, May 8: $78,720 ($120). Total: $6,906,488. 5/12/2008: Friday, May 9-Sunday, May 11: $328,836 ($818). Total: $7,235,324. 5/14/2008: Monday, May 12: $38,994 ($97); Tuesday, May 13: $35,778 ($89). 5/16/2008: Wednesday, May 14: $43,818 ($109), Thursday, May 15: $43,014 ($107). 5/28/2008: Monday, May 26: $16,019 ($193). Total: $7,598,071. Theater counts at The-Numbers: 4/18/2008: 1,052 4/25/2008: 1,041 5/2/2008: 656 5/9/2008: 402 5/16/2008: 210 5/23/2008: 83 “Expelled” ratings at Rotten Tomatoes: 4/18/2008 7:54 a.m. MST: 8% fresh (12 reviews, 11 rotten, 2.9/10 rating) 4/18/2008 11:48 a.m. MST: 7% fresh (14 reviews, 13 rotten, 2.9/10 rating) 4/18/2008 1:35 p.m. MST: 5% fresh (21 reviews, 20 rotten, 2.8/10 rating) 4/18/2008 2:56 p.m. MST: 9% fresh (22 reviews, 20 rotten, 3/10 rating) (Christianity Today review added) 4/19/2008 4:15 p.m. MST: 9% fresh (23 reviews, 21 rotten, 3/10 rating) 4/22/2008 6:23 p.m. MST: 12% fresh (25 reviews, 22 rotten, 3.2/10 rating) 4/24/2008 4:39 p.m. MST: 10% fresh (30 reviews, 27 rotten, 2.9/10 rating) 4/292008 8:08 a.m. MST: 9% fresh (33 reviews, 30 rotten, 3/10 rating) Top Critics: 0% fresh (13 reviews, 13 rotten, 2.6/10 rating) RT Community rating: 50% fresh (377 reviews, 188 rotten, 4.8/10 rating) “Expelled” ratings at IMDB: 4/19/2008 4:15 p.m. MST: Average rating is 3.3/10 with 402 very polarized votes–81 (20.1%) rated the movie a 10, 276 (68.7%) rated it a 1. Females like it more than males, and those under 18 and over 45 like it more than those in between. Average rating for males: 3.1 Average rating for females: 6.3 Average rating for under 18-year-olds: 6.7 (male 6.7, female 10) Average rating for 18-29 year-olds: 3.0 (male 2.5, female 7.7) Average rating for 30-44 year-olds: 3.0 (male 3.1, female 2.0) Average rating for 45+: 4.7 (male 4.5, female 5.5) 4/21/2008 10:36 a.m. MST: Average rating is now 3.6/10 with 659 votes, still highly polarized (22.2% 10, 61.0% 1), but now with a few more 7, 8, and 9 ratings (2.4%, 4.2%, and 4.7%, respectively), and a few more 2 and 3 ratings (2.1% and 1.2%, respectively). Average rating for males: 3.3 Average rating for females: 6.7 Average rating for under 18-year-olds: 6.5 (male 6.3, female 7.8) Average rating for 18-29 year-olds: 3.4 (male 3.0, female 7.7) Average rating for 30-44 year-olds: 3.3 (male 3.3, female 2.4) Average rating for 45+: 4.1 (male 4.0, female 7.7) 4/24/2008 4:41 p.m. MST: Average rating is now 3.6/10 with 2,332 votes (25.4% 10, 57.0% 1; 5.1% 9, 4.0% 8, 2.0% 7, 1.5% 3, 3.1% 2). Average rating for males: 3.4 Average rating for females: 5.4 Average rating for under 18-year-olds: 6.0 (male 5.5, female 7.9) Average rating for 18-29 year-olds: 3.2 (male 3.0, female 5.5) Average rating for 30-44 year-olds: 3.6 (male 3.6, female 3.4) Average rating for 45+: 4.6 (male 4.4, female 6.7) Expelled box office and ratings at Box Office Mojo: 4/19/2008 9:54 a.m. MST: Box Office Mojo readers rate the movie a B, with 110 votes (66.4% A, 3.6% B, 28.2% F). 4/20/2008 12:21 p.m. MST: “Expelled” took in less money on Saturday than on Friday–$990,000, or $941 per theater. Sunday’s projected take is $958,000. 4/21/2008 5:07 p.m. MST: The opening weekend box office take was $2,970,848, a per-theater average of $2,824. Sunday brought in only $775,000, or $737 per theater. 4/22/2008 6:25 p.m. MST: Monday’s box office take was $238,804, another 68.8% drop in daily gross, for a per-theater average of $227. Total take is now $3,209,652. Friday-Sunday have been updated: Friday: $1,208,748 ($1,149), Saturday: $996,244 ($947), Sunday: $765,856 ($728). The weekend total agrees with The-Numbers, but the daily totals do not. 4/23/2008 2:01 p.m. MST: Tuesday: $227,232 ($216); Wednesday: $234,596 ($223). Six-day total: $3,671,480. 4/24/2008 3:04 p.m. MST: Thursday: $231,440 ($220). Seven-day total: $3,902,920. 4/25/2008 6:56 p.m. MST: Friday: $450,000 ($432) (estimate), rank #13. Seven-day total: $4,353,000. 4/30/2008 1:58 p.m. MST: Saturday: $529,000 ($508), Sunday: $414,000 ($398), Monday: $157,191 ($151), Tuesday: $162,396 ($156). Weekend numbers are all still estimates. 5/2/2008 7:04 p.m. MST: Wednesday: $159,273 ($153), Thursday: $158,232 ($152). 5/5/2008 9:20 a.m. PDT: May 2-4 weekend: $684,000 ($1,042). 5/6/2008 7:40 p.m. PDT: Friday, May 2: $216,480 ($330), Saturday, May 3: $270,272 ($412), Sunday, May 4: $191,552 ($292), Monday, May 5: $66,912 ($102), ranked #15. Total: $6,680,168. 5/7/2008 7:53 p.m. PDT: Tuesday, May 6: $74,128 ($113). 5/8/2008 8:29 p.m. PDT: Wednesday, May 7: $73,472 ($112). 5/9/2008 5:17 p.m. PDT: Thursday, May 8: $78,720 ($120). 5/11/2008 4:01 p.m. MST: May 9-11 weekend: $328,836 ($818), in 402 theaters, ranked #21. 5/12/2008 7:39 p.m. MST: Friday, May 9: $100,902 ($251); Saturday, May 10: $120,600 ($300); Sunday, May 11: $107,334 ($267). Total: $7,235,324. 5/13/2008 3:55 p.m. MST: Monday, May 12: $38,994 ($97). 5/14/2008 8:04 p.m. MST: Tuesday, May 13: $35,778 ($89). 5/16/2008 7:40 p.m. MST: Wednesday, May 14: $43,818 ($109); Thursday, May 15: $43,014 ($107). Total: $7,396,927. 5/18/2008 6:13 p.m.: May 16-18 weekend estimate: $89,000 ($423) in 210 theaters. 5/21/2008 11:14 a.m. MST: May 16-18 weekend: $102,690 ($489). Total: $7,499,617. 5/28/2008 12:38 p.m. MST: May 23-26 four-day weekend: $46,314 ($558). (May 23-25: $35,109 ($423).) Total: $7,598,071. All-time top box office for documentaries at Box Office Mojo. All-time top box office for controversial films at Box Office Mojo. All-time top box office for Christian films at Box Office Mojo. ...
Hugh Ross’s old-earth creationist organization, Reasons to Believe, has issued a statement on “Expelled”: Dear RTB Chapter members, With the impending release of “EXPELLED: No Intelligence Allowed” (April 18), the Reasons to Believe scholar team thought it best to prepare a statement of our position, a guide for answering questions from chapters, networks, and apologists. Keep in mind that the mission of RTB centers on reaching out to science-minded people with two purposes: ...
The Atheist Blogger points out that “Expelled” is violating the license terms on the blog theme used at their blog. A commenter at The Playlist blog points out that while they did indeed purchase a license to use The Killers’ song “All These Things That I’ve Done,” they did so in a deceptive way. Here’s how they described the film that they wanted the license for: The film is a satirical documentary with an estimated running time of 1 hour and 50 minutes, exploring academic freedom in public schools and government institutions with actor, comedian, economist, Ben Stein as the spokesperson.No mention of intelligent design or evolution. That’s a similar tactic to the deception they used to get some of the interviews in the film.
This is pretty good…
Ed Brayton has written an article about the Richard Sternberg controversy at the Smithsonian for Skeptic magazine, which will appear in the next issue. The article has been published online in advance, along with an article by Michael Shermer about his interaction with Ben Stein. UPDATE (April 18, 2008): Ed Brayton has responded to the Discovery Institute’s “non-response” on the Sternberg affair.
On April 15, “getexpelled,” a user which has been posting the official clips from the movie “Expelled,” posted new animation footage of the operations of the cell which is clearly not derived from XVIVO’s footage. (ERV refers to this footage as a “toddler animation” and “a shitty Las-Vegas-Meets-TeleTubbies ‘Inner Life’”.) I suspect they already took action to put this new footage into the film that will come out tomorrow instead of the animation which they copied from XVIVO, which means that they have already complied with that demand from XVIVO’s infringement letter. That also means that their lawsuit for a declaratory judgment in Texas is really an argument that this new footage is not infringing, which they’ll probably win–this footage is not infringing. But it also means that, yet again, they’ve been thoroughly deceptive in how they operate, and have implicitly admitted that they were, in fact, infringing XVIVO’s copyright in the footage that they showed in the early screenings. That’s probably not worth the effort for XVIVO to sue them over. But it’s definitely worth pointing out. UPDATE (April 22, 2008): Apparently the XVIVO-infringing animation is still in the released film, after all. ...
The copyright infringment continues–it seems that “Expelled” makes use of about 25 seconds of John Lennon’s song “Imagine,” but permission was neither sought nor granted for its use: In a written statement, the film’s three producers – Walt Ruloff, John Sullivan and Logan Craft – acknowledged that they did not seek permission, but they called the use “momentary.” “After seeking the opinion of legal counsel it was seen as a First Amendment issue and protected under the fair use doctrine of free speech,” the statement said. A spokeswoman said under 25 seconds of the song are used in the movie.Now this is actually an instance where I agree with “Expelled”’s producers–this should fall within fair use guidelines. The courts, however, have already ruled otherwise. (UPDATE: Not quite accurate, see correction below.) In 2005, the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in Bridgeport Music, Inc. v. Dimension Films that even a 1.5-second sample requires a license. I’d be happy to see a lawsuit on this issue result in that ruling being overturned. I’ve previously written about the danger of such erosion of fair use to the creation of new music in one of this blog’s more popular posts. The link at the end of that post about “Amen Brother” is well worth your time. (Also related is this film in which fair-use samples from Disney films are used to make Disney characters explain current U.S. copyright law.) UPDATE (April 18, 2008): Russell Blackford argues that “Expelled”’s use of “Imagine” is to make comment on the content of the song, and makes a moral case for the legitimacy of its use. I agree with his argument–the use of a sample of the song to make comment on it enhances the case for “fair use,” but I think it should have met fair use guidelines even without that. UPDATE (April 23, 2008): As commenter lquilter points out below, the Bridgeport case did not say quite what I said above–it doesn’t eliminate fair use as a defense to a use of small samples, it eliminates the argument that sampling is using so little of the original material that no copyright applies. The result is that a lengthier court proceeding is required to fight for such use. “Expelled”’s makers are now being sued over the use of “Imagine." I don’t feel bad for them, but I think they should win their case. This probably guarantees that the film will not make a profit from its theatrical run, after deducting legal expenses. UPDATE (May 1, 2008): The Stanford Law School’s Fair Use Project has signed on to defend “Expelled” against the Ono Lennon lawsuit. Good for them, I hope they win this one. It shouldn’t be difficult. UPDATE (May 2, 2008): P.Z. Myers points out distortions in “Expelled”’s press release about the their defense in the “Imagine” lawsuit. Even in the rare case when I agree with them (their fair use defense here), they still have to throw in a distortion or two to show that they are sleazy, I guess. (I disagree with Myers’ assertion that there is no commentary on the song; see Russell Blackford’s analysis, linked to above.) Perhaps the strongest argument against “Expelled” in this case is that they sought licenses for other songs they used, but did not even attempt to get permission for “Imagine,” as pointed out by Laura Quilter (who has also commented here). UPDATE (May 5, 2008): The judge in the case has enjoined “Expelled” from any further distribution or DVD release, though they can continue showing the film in the theaters where it’s already playing (currently down to 655 theaters). UPDATE (May 9, 2008): And now down to 402 theaters. UPDATE (June 2, 2008): The judge has ruled against Yoko Ono’s motion for a permanent injunction against “Expelled” on the grounds that the defendants are likely to prevail. ...
The folks at XVIVO have argued that “Expelled” has engaged in copyright infringement by directly copying from their film, “The Inner Life of the Cell.” The “Expelled” producers have responded by claiming that they constructed their film based on original research: However, the latest claim concerning the copyright status of our proprietary animation is so ridiculous, bogus and misinformed that we must respond. Premise Media invested significant time and money into the research and original creation of the animation used in our film to illustrate cellular activity. Our own team of experts created the highest quality of animation that is available. In fact, the animation we use in the theatrical release of our movie is only a small portion of the animation we have created and plan to use in future projects.Darwin Central has proposed a paternity test in the form of a series of image comparisons. On the left hand side, images from a variety of sources showing a particular process in the cell that is depicted by “The Inner Life of the Cell.” On the right hand side, a comparison image from the “Expelled” segment at issue. Surely, if the “Expelled” producers are correct, there should be no reason to find any special similarity between the image on the left that comes from XVIVO’s film and the image that comes from “Expelled” versus any of the other images on the left. See for yourself. It also appears that other parts of “Expelled”’s animations have been taken from other sources, to which John Wilkins has a connection! Yet Premise Media is suing XVIVO, seeking a declaratory judgment in Texas! This sounds like venue shopping or “forum shopping," since XVIVO is in Massachusetts. UPDATE: ERV has a copy of the complaint and a summary. She also includes a new video, that she speculates has replaced the XVIVO-copied video in the final film. UPDATE (April 19, 2008): The footage copied from XVIVO was apparently removed from the film before yesterday’s public release. ...
The NCSE’s “Expelled Exposed” website has now gone live, and it contains a wealth of factual background information about the alleged cases of suppression of intelligence design presented in the film “Exposed,” as well as highlighting other information left out of the film and the story of the deceptive methods used by the producers of the film. The home page of the site features the story of Chris Comer, Director of Science for the Texas Education Agency. Unlike any of the alleged victims of persecution in “Expelled,” she was actually forced to resign from her position. Not because she was an advocate of intelligent design, but because she sent out an email announcing a university lecture by Barbara Forrest, a philosopher critical of intelligent design. The next main area of the site is titled “The Truth Behind the Fiction," which has the following sections: THE SCIENTIFIC CLAIMS EvolutionIntelligent DesignChallenging ScienceScience & ReligionHitler & EugenicsTHE “EXPELLED”Richard SternbergGuillermo GonzalezCaroline CrockerRobert MarksPamela WinnickMichael Egnor The next area of the site, “Behind the Scenes," explains the deception, dishonesty, and hypocrisy of the makers of the film: What is Premise Media?Questionable Interview TacticsMarketing with a MotiveSilencing the Dissenters Finally, the last section of the site is a collection of resources which has been on the site for some time, but is constantly growing–a list of news coverage and reviews of the film. Check out the site for the facts that the makers of “Expelled” don’t want you to see.