Tucson #7 most overpriced city on Forbes list

Tucson made Forbes’ list of the top 10 most overpriced cities in the United States for 2006 at #7. The list is based on the largest 112 metro areas in Forbes’ 2006 list of best places for business and careers, ranking them based on job growth, cost of living, housing affordability, and salaries. The ten most overpriced locations have the highest costs of living, lowest housing affordability, least job growth, and lowest salaries. 1. Essex County, Massachusetts 2. San Francisco, California 3. San Jose, California 4. Honolulu, Hawaii 5. Cambridge, Massachusetts 6. New York City, New York 7. Tucson, Arizona 8. Oakland, California 9. Boston, Massachusetts 10. Los Angeles, California

July 26, 2006 · 1 min

Visual representation of global data

This is a very interesting presentation at Google by the folks at Gapminder, a Swedish nonprofit that is trying to provide better, visual ways of representing information about the state of the world. These are the same people who put together this set of excellent animated interactive presentations on human development trends (income levels, life expectancy, etc.) for the United Nations Development Program. (Via Patri Friedman at Catallarchy.) Historical Comments Einzige (2006-12-09): Fascinating! ...

July 21, 2006 · 1 min

Graph of Phoenix Housing Inventory

I plugged all the previous data into Excel and generated this graph: I wonder what happened in December and early January. The trend is amazingly linear, otherwise. When do we start considering Phoenix a buyer’s market? Now? When inventory hits 6oK? When the trend shows clear signs it has reversed? As I said in the comments to the previous housing inventory post, I think I want to start making lowball offers when I get back there!

June 18, 2006 · 1 min

Phoenix housing bubble update

It’s been a while since I gave an update on the number of homes for sale in Phoenix–the inventory has continued to balloon since the last report on March 10: 3/7/2006 36953 3/8/2006 37487 3/9/2006 37626 3/10/2006 37531 3/11/2006 38011 3/12/2006 38184 3/13/2006 38169 3/14/2006 38003 3/15/2006 38197 3/16/2006 38574 3/17/2006 38602 3/18/2006 39074 3/19/2006 38972 3/20/2006 38822 3/21/2006 39159 3/22/2006 38982 3/23/2006 39043 3/24/2006 39271 3/25/2006 39381 3/26/2006 39504 3/27/2006 39817 3/28/2006 39784 3/29/2006 39765 3/30/2006 39948 3/31/2006 40192 4/1/2006 40177 4/2/2006 40182 4/3/2006 40012 4/4/2006 40050 4/5/2006 40332 4/6/2006 40739 4/7/2006 40612 4/8/2006 41124 4/9/2006 41393 4/10/2006 41018 4/11/2006 42266 4/12/2006 42327 4/13/2006 42257 4/14/2006 42561 4/15/2006 42592 4/16/2006 42775 4/17/2006 42874 4/18/2006 42523 4/19/2006 42840 4/20/2006 43017 4/21/2006 43236 4/22/2006 43385 4/23/2006 43502 4/24/2006 43697 4/25/2006 43344 4/26/2006 43427 4/27/2006 44024 4/28/2006 43886 4/29/2006 44022 4/30/2006 44290 5/1/2006 44229 5/2/2006 43900 5/3/2006 43966 5/4/2006 44162 5/5/2006 44422 5/6/2006 44094 5/7/2006 44575 5/8/2006 44777 5/9/2006 44609 5/10/2006 44898 5/11/2006 45097 5/12/2006 45356 5/13/2006 45502 5/14/2006 45619 5/15/2006 45697 5/16/2006 45705 5/17/2006 45675 5/18/2006 46064 5/19/2006 46189 5/20/2006 46049 5/21/2006 46734 5/22/2006 46753 5/23/2006 46965 5/24/2006 46856 5/25/2006 47133 5/26/2006 47225 5/27/2006 47582 5/28/2006 47591 5/29/2006 47633 5/30/2006 47722 5/31/2006 47542 6/1/2006 47187 6/2/2006 47191 6/3/2006 47848 6/4/2006 47877 6/5/2006 47979 6/6/2006 48218 6/7/2006 48106 6/8/2006 48365 6/9/2006 48579 6/10/2006 48870 6/11/2006 48889 6/12/2006 49040 6/13/2006 49132 6/14/2006 49237 6/15/2006 49052 6/16/2006 49435 My first report, last October, showed an increase in inventory from 10,748 homes on July 20, 2005 to 19,254 on October 2. We’re now at a 459% increase in inventory in the just under 11 months. (But see Einzige’s comment on what counts as evidence of a housing bubble…) ...

June 16, 2006 · 2 min

When private property becomes the commons

While thinking about Jonathan Adler’s presentation at the Skeptics Society conference, it occurred to me that the problem of botnets is, in effect, a tragedy of the commons. The private personal computers of consumers which are connected full-time to the Internet and are not kept up-to-date on patches have, in effect, become a commons to be exploited by the botherders. The owners of the computers are generally not aware of what’s going on, as the bots generally try to minimize obtrusiveness in order to continue to operate. The actual damages to each individual are typically quite small (with some notable exceptions–botherders can steal and make use of any data on the machine, including personal identity information and confidential documents), and the individual consumer doesn’t have sufficient incentive to prevent the problem (say, by spending additional money on security software or taking the time to maintain the system). Similarly, the typical entry-level casual blogger may not have incentives to keep their blogs free of spam comments. Neither, for that matter, does commons-advocate Larry Lessig, whose blog’s comments are full of spam, making them less useful than they otherwise would be–I think this is an amusing irony about Lessig’s position in his book Code. He argues that we need to have some subsidized public space on the Internet, but it seems to me private companies have already created it largely without public subsidy, and I think Declan McCullagh has the better case in his exchange with Lessig. (By contrast, Blogger does have incentive to prevent spam blogs, which consume large amounts of its resources and make its service less useful–and so it takes sometimes heavy-handed automated actions to try to shut it down.) Bruce Schneier has argued that the right way to resolve this particular problem is by setting liability rules to shift incentives to players who can address the issue–e.g., software companies, ISPs, and banks (for phishing, but see this rebuttal). I agree with Schneier on this general point and with the broader point that economics has a lot to teach information security.

June 12, 2006 · 2 min

Adler on federal environmental regulation

At the Skeptics Society conference on “The Environmental Wars," Jonathan Adler gave a talk on “Fables of Federal Environmental Regulation." Adler’s talk made several points, the main ones among them being: * Federal regulations tend to come late to the game, after state and local regulations or private actions have already begun addressing the problems. The recurring pattern is that there is an initial recognition of a problem, there’s state and local regulation and private action to address it, and then there’s federalization. I can add to Adler’s examples the development of the cellular telephone industry, where private actors stepped in to allocate licenses through the “Big Monopoly Game” (a story told in the book Wireless Nation) when the FCC proved incompetent to do so itself; federal anti-spam legislation, which came only after many states passed anti-spam laws; and federal law to require notification of customers whose personal information has been exposed by system compromise (which still doesn’t exist, though almost half the states now have some kind of hacking notification law). (In a related point, industries regularly develop products that completely sidestep federal regulations, such as the SUV, interstate banking, credit cards, money market accounts, and discount brokerages. The development of the latter financial products is a story told in Joseph Nocera’s A Piece of the Action: How the Middle Class Joined the Money Class.) * The causes of federal regulations are not necessarily the problems themselves, but are often rent-seeking by involved entities, which can create a barrier to other alternative solutions. Adler listed four causes of federal environmental regulations: increased environmental awareness (by the voters and the feds), increasingly nationalized politics (political action at a national level), distrust of states and federalism, and rent-seeking. He gave examples to illustrate. * We don’t see (I’d say “we tend not to see”) environmental problems where we have well-defined property rights; the environmental problems occur in the commons (cf. Garrett Hardin’s “The Tragedy of the Commons”). I disagree with making this an absolute statement since there are bad actors who disregard even well-established property rights (or liability rules). Adler’s intent was to raise skepticism about federal regulation on environmental matters on the basis of several points: * History shows the problem already being addressed effectively in a more decentralized manner. * Federal regulation tends to preempt state regulation, creating a uniform approach that doesn’t allow us the benefits of seeing how different approaches might work–we can miss out on better ways of dealing with the issue. * The rent-seeking behavior can produce unintended consequences that can make things worse or impose other costs. While I’m not sure I agree with the implied conclusion that federal regulation is never helpful, I agree that these are good reasons to be skeptical. The preemption issue in particular is a big one. The federal anti-spam law, CAN-SPAM, was pushed through after years of failure to pass federal regulations against spam after California passed a tough mandatory opt-in law. The federal law was passed largely through efforts by Microsoft and AOL (whose lawyers helped write it) and preempted state laws which mandated opt-in or any requirements contrary to the federal law. I don’t think it’s cynical to believe that preventing the California law from taking effect–which would potentially have affected online marketing efforts by Microsoft and AOL–was a major cause of the federal legislation passing. The benefit of preemption is that it creates a level playing field across the entire nation, which reduces the costs of compliance for those who operate across multiple states. But it also reduces the likelihood of innovation in law through experimentation with different approaches, and reduces the advantages of local entities in competition with multi-state entities. It also prevents a state with more stringent requirements from affecting the behavior of a multi-state provider operating in that state, when the requirements get dropped to a federal lowest common denominator. As regulation almost always has unintended consequences, a diversity of approaches provides a way to discover those consequences and make more informed choices. Another issue is that many federal regulations provide little in the way of enforcement, and the more federal regulations are created, the less likely that any particular one will have enforcement resources devoted to it. If you look at the FCC’s enforcement of laws against illegal telemarketing activity (such as the prohibition on prerecorded solicitations to residential telephones, and the prohibition on telemarketing to cell phones), it’s virtually nonexistent. They occasionally issue a citation, and very rarely issue fines to telemarketers who are blatantly violating the law on a daily basis. In this particular case, the law creates a private right of action so that the recipient of such an illegal call can file a civil case, and this model is one I’d like to endorse. I’ve personally had far more effect on most of the specific telemarketers who have made illegal calls to my residence than the FCC has. Federal laws and regulations can be effective when they are applicable to a small number of large players who can be adequately policed by a federal agency (but in such cases those large players tend to also be large players in Washington, D.C., and have huge influence over what rules get set) or when the enforcement is pushed down to state, local, or even private levels (e.g., using property or liability rules rather than agency-based regulation). Otherwise, they tend to be largely symbolic, with enforcement actions only occurring against major offenders while most violations are left unpunished. The most effective solutions are those which place the incentives on involved parties to voluntarily come to agreements that address the issues, and I think these are possible in most circumstances with the appropriate set of property and liability rules. A good discussion of this subject may be found in David Friedman’s book, Law’s Order: What Economics Has to Do With Law and Why It Matters. There seems to be a widespread illusion on the part of many people that many problems can be solved merely by passing the federal legislation, without regard for the actual empirical consequences of such legislation (or the actual process of how it’s determined what gets put into such legislation!). From intellectual property law, to environmental law, to telecommunications law (e.g., net neutrality), good intentions can easily lead to bad consequences by those who don’t concern themselves with such details. Friedman’s book is a good start as an antidote to such thinking.

June 12, 2006 · 6 min

Conditions of income mobility

Two studies reported in The Economist (pay content) show that income mobility–the ability for children to be more economically successful than their parents–is much greater in Scandanavian countries and the UK than it is in the United States: The authors rank countries on a scale from one to zero, with one meaning no mobility at all (ie, a child’s income is identical to its parents’) and zero meaning perfect mobility (ie, a child’s income bears no relation to its parents’). The Nordic countries score around 0.2 for sons, Britain scores 0.36, and America 0.54 (meaning that a son’s earnings are more closely related to his father’s in America). These figures are roughly in line with the conclusions of other studies, though they have the advantage of using standardised data, thereby minimising problems of definition that usually bedevil cross-country comparisons. The biggest finding of the studies is not, however, about overall social mobility, but about mobility at the bottom. This is the most distinctive feature of Nordic societies, and it is also perhaps the most significant difference with America. Around three-quarters of sons born into the poorest fifth of the population in Nordic countries in the late 1950s had moved out of that category by the time they were in their early 40s. In contrast, only just over half of American men born at the bottom later moved up. This is another respect in which Britain is more like the Nordics than like America: some 70% of its poorest sons escaped from poverty within a generation. ...

June 6, 2006 · 3 min

Wine shipping in Arizona to become legal

Despite the attempted astro-turfing by beverage distributors, Arizona Senate Bill 1276 has passed. Actually, the wholesalers agreed to a compromise–the bill only allows shipping by wineries that produce less then 20,000 gallons of wine per year (and which obtain an Arizona domestic farm winery license and pay state taxes). The fact that the wholesalers agreed to a compromise based on wine production shows that they didn’t really believe their own arguments that this created a new risk of underage drinking.

May 28, 2006 · 1 min

Is There Really a Housing Bubble?

To many, the housing bubble seems a foregone conclusion. Uncountable blogs devoted to the bubble give the impression that you must be crazy or stupid to not see it. In spite of this, I remain unconvinced. I’m not even sure I know what the “housing bubble” is. Here is a working definition: …that housing prices have been pushed well beyond any semblance of reasonableness and the dictates of healthy market fundamentals due to excessive liquidity, extremely relaxed lending standards, a speculative mania, and the increasingly irresponsible “cheerleading” of vested interests.Endless scary graphs, like this one, which shows Phoenix appreciation rates over the past 30 years, seem to bear this out. Nonetheless, I am left with questions. For example, who decides what price is “reasonable”? What standard should we use? Value is entirely subjective. Price, being a function of value plus ability to pay, can seem “unreasonable” to some, but “very reasonable” to others. The only one that matters, though, is the person who actually buys—and who, in so doing, reveals his opinion that the price is “reasonable.” Where is the evidence of a “speculative mania”? You can’t simply point to the recent rapid appreciation rates and say, “See?”, because that’s assuming what you’re trying to prove. What evidence I’ve seen for this has been sparse and unconvincing, so far. Of course I could be wrong, and we could be on the precipice of the largest housing price decline in history. Unfortunately we’ll only know in retrospect. The charge of “excessive liquidity” and “relaxed lending standards” also rings hollow to me. Now, it seems certain that the amount of borrowing taking place has increased significantly, but that could be caused by any number of things. Why does this automatically mean that lenders have become “extremely relaxed” with their money—which I presume means they’ve suddenly become willing to lend to any fiscally irresponsible idiot, as long as he has a heartbeat? This seems a testable hypothesis to me. If such an explanation were true, wouldn’t you expect to see foreclosure actions increase over time, as the bad debtors began defaulting on their loans? When debtors default on their loans, lenders need to provide public notice of the impending sale of the property. These notices get recorded at the county recorders office, usually in the form of a Notice of Trustee’s Sale. In order for a lender to record a Notice of Trustee’s Sale, a borrower has to be at least 90 days late on her mortgage payments. Luckily, Maricopa County makes these records easy to obtain. This graph shows data I’ve compiled from the Maricopa County Recorders office. The blue line is the number of Notices of Trustee’s Sales per month, over the past 11 years. The dotted red line is a 3-month moving average. What does this graph tell us? My first impression is that it’s easy to see evidence of the 2001 tech bubble, but, if anything, Maricopa County seems to have recovered from that, as the average number of notices has returned to 1996ish levels. Admittedly this one graph is hardly a death-blow to the idea of the bubble, but I believe it’s important to take note of it, if for nothing else, then at least as a caution against our tendency to succumb to Chicken-Littleism and confirmation bias. ...

May 6, 2006 · 7 min

Literal offshoring

From BLDGBLOG–I would have thought I’d see this first somewhere like Catallarchy–is a report of a San Diego-based company called SeaCode. The company has the idea of mooring a cruise ship in international waters off the coast of L.A. to host offshore computer programmers from Russia and India, paying them about $1,800 a month in take-home pay, with a four-months-on, two-months-off work cycle. That compares to $500 a month for a programmer in India. The idea’s been condemned by right (“an outrageous affront to U.S. labor laws”) and left (calling it an idea for “sweat ships”), which is a sign of either a really good or really bad idea–I think it could be a good one. Since this was reported originally back in April of 2005, it doesn’t look like it’s gotten anywhere. ...

April 5, 2006 · 2 min
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