Economics

Not much blogging going on here still, but here's my annual list of books read for 2019. Graham T. Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Ross Anderson, Security Engineering (3rd edition, draft chapters) Herbert Asbury, The Barbary Coast: An Informal History of the San Francisco Underworld Heidi Blake, From Russia with Blood: The Kremlin's Ruthless Assassination Program and Vladimir Putin's Secret War on the West Rutger Bregman, Utopia for Realists: How We Can Build the Ideal World Oliver Bullough, Moneyland: The Inside Story of the Crooks and Kleptocrats Who Rule the World Bryan Caplan and Zach Weinersmith, Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration C.J. Chivers, The Fighters: Americans in Combat Sefton Delmer, Black Boomerang Nina J. Easton, Gang of Five: Leaders at the Center of the Conservative Crusade (bio of Bill Kristol, Ralph Reed, Clint Bolick, Grover Norquist, and David McIntosh) Ronan Farrow, Catch and Kill: Lies, Spies, and a Conspiracy to Protect Predators Ronan Farrow, War on Peace: The End of Diplomacy and the Decline of American Influence Ian Frisch, Magic is Dead: My Journey into the World's Most Secretive Society of Magicians Anand Giridharadas, Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World Reba Wells Grandrud, Sunnyslope (Images of America series) Andy Greenberg, Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin's Most Dangerous Hackers Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey, She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story That Helped Ignite a Movement Stephen Kinzer, Overthrow: America's Century of Regime Change From Hawaii to Iraq Michael Lewis, Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt Jonathan Lusthaus, Industry of Anonymity: Inside the Business of Cybercrime Ben MacIntyre, A Spy Among Friends: Kim Philby and the Great Betrayal Joseph Menn, Cult of the Dead Cow: How the Original Hacking Supergroup Might Just Save the World Anna Merlan, Republic of Lies: American Conspiracy Theorists and Their Surprising Rise to Power Jefferson Morley, Our Man in Mexico: Winston Scott and the Hidden History of the CIA Sarah T. Roberts, Behind the Screen: Content Moderation in the Shadows of Social Media Hans Rosling, with Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think Russell Shorto, Amsterdam: A History of the World's Most Liberal City Alexander Stille, The Sack of Rome: Media + Money + Celebrity = Power = Silvio Berlusconi Jamie Susskind, Future Politics: Living Together in a World Transformed by Tech Erik Van De Sandt, Deviant Security: The Technical Computer Security Practices of Cyber Criminals (Ph.D. thesis) Tom Wolfe, The Right Stuff Tim Wu, The Attention Merchants: The Epic Scramble to Get Inside Our Heads Top for 2019: Bullough, Farrow (Catch and Kill), Wu, Chivers, Rosling, Greenberg, Blake, Allison, Caplan and Weinersmith, Kinzer, Delmer. I started the following books I expect to finish in early 2020: Myke Cole, Legion versus Phalanx: The Epic Struggle for Infantry Supremacy in the Ancient World Walter LaFeber, Inevitable Revolutions: The United States in Central America (2nd edition) Brad Smith and Carol Anne Browne, Tools and Weapons: The Promise and Peril of the Digital Age Peter H. Wilson, The Holy Roman Empire: A Thousand Years of Europe's History Two books I preordered and look forward to reading in 2020: Anna Wiener, Uncanny Valley: A Memoir (due out January 14) Thomas Rid, Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare (due out April 21) (Previously: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.)

Veteran software tester Abe Heward has started up a blog on software testing, which I’m sure will also include many items of epistemological, economic, and skeptical interest. He’s already got posts on how the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy is relevant to software testing, why good testers aren’t robots (and the flaws in one company’s attempt to treat them as if they were), and on opportunity cost and testing automation. Check it out at www.abeheward.com.

Todd Wood of the Center for Origins Research at Bryan College has gotten around to doing what I haven’t done, updating my analysis of the market for creationism that I did in early 2007. He confirms some of the trends I noted, such as that the market for creationism has been growing and is dominated by Answers in Genesis. His update goes further, and includes a comparison to the National Center for Science Education, noting that he market for criticism of creationism has grown along with the market for creationism. He also points out that the groups involved got a boost revenue in 2005 during the Dover trial, that the AiG split from Creation Ministries International doesn’t appear to have hurt AiG, and that “Godquest,” formerly known as Creation Science Evangelism, the Hovind organization, is the #3 creationist organization for revenue behind AiG and the Institute for Creation Research. Wood reports the following numbers for recent years: ...

I haven’t posted one of these things in a while, so I figured it was about time. The big peak was in March, with a total of 10,725 that month. October’s total was 6,618. <img style=“display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 260px;” src="/images/09OctNTRs.jpg" border=“0” alt=““id=“BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5398553297848650530” /> Lippard (2009-10-31): The stimulus tax credit ends at the end of the year. I suspect we're going to see it climb again next year. ...

In April 2009, the city of Phoenix received $40 million in federal stimulus money under the Neighborhood Stabilization Program. This program is designed to put a floor on house prices by providing zero-interest loans of up to $15,000 to home buyers to cover downpayments and closing costs on purchases of foreclosed homes. The number of home buyers who have used this program to date: zero. Several hundred people have applied for the program, but none has purchased a home yet. The program requires that buyers have incomes between $55,350 and $104,400, depending on size of family, must complete eight hours of financial counseling in budgeting and home ownership, and must invest $1,000 of their own money. The NSP loan must be repaid in the event that the home is sold or refinanced. (Via ABC15.com.)

From the Technology Quarterly report in the June 6-12, 2009 issue of The Economist, a few articles of interest: Gasoline/compressed-air hybrid vehicles may prove more cost-effective than gas-electric hybrids.Bigelow Aerospace wins challenge against export control regulations that would have required non-U.S. passengers on space flights to be treated as recipients of technology transfers, which would have required an onerous approval and monitoring process. (Not reported in the story is that Robert Bigelow is now funding MUFON to pay UFO researchers.)Delay-tolerant network protocol (DTN), developed with assistance from Vint Cerf, has been tested to transfer data between NASA’s EPOXI probe and earth-based stations, which will lead to an interplanetary internet that includes the International Space Station.The heart of the cockroach has been used as the model for a new type of low-cost artificial heart for humans.Researchers are devising a laser-based defense mechanism to shoot down mosquitoes rather than missiles. Funded by the Gates Foundation, the prototype cost is only about $100. We’d like one. ...

The Center for Public Integrity, an organization I support, has just published the results of an investigation into the roots of the recent economic crisis and the major players involved: The top subprime lenders whose loans are largely blamed for triggering the global economic meltdown were owned or backed by giant banks now collecting billions of dollars in bailout money — including several that have paid huge fines to settle predatory lending charges. The banks that funded the subprime industry were not victims of an unforeseen financial collapse, as they have sometimes portrayed themselves, but enablers that bankrolled the type of lending threatening the financial system. … According to the analysis: ...

A nice visual depiction of what it amounts to. (Via The Agitator.) Historical Comments Ktisophilos (2009-05-03): Good one!

At the Financial Times (with more detail for each item): 1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. 2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. 3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. 4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. 5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. 6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . 7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. 8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. 9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. 10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. (Via Will Wilkinson.) ...

A banker who resisted the urge to invest in toxic assets during the boom is cleaning up during the bust. Andy Beal of Beal Bank in Plano, Texas “virtually stopped making or buying loans” from 2004 to 2007, leading people around him to think he was crazy. Now he’s buying up loans at fire sale prices and has tripled his bank’s assets to $7 billion in the last 15 months, and without government bailout money. Beal is also known for high-stakes poker games against the top poker players in the world, in which he has lost more than he’s won, but occasionally taken for a lot of money (including an $11 million win in one day). ...