Creationism

Intelligent design advocate Michael Behe was interviewed for the film “Expelled,” and even included in one of the trailer previews, but does not appear in the final film, even though he has been one of the most prominent ID advocates. Why not? There are several likely explanations: 1. He is a counter-example to the claim that intelligent design advocates are being persecuted by academia. He is an intelligent design advocate who is also a professor at Lehigh University. (Point due to Tegamai Bopsulai.) 2. He has become something of a heretic in intelligent design circles as a result of his latest book, The Edge of Evolution, in which he affirms common ancestry, he calls using the Bible as a science textbook “silly,” he doesn’t think intelligent design is necessary to explain lower taxonomic levels of life such as species, genera, families, and orders, and he doesn’t see the need for continued miraculous interventions into the process of evolution by God. (Points due to Larry Arnhart.) 3. His latest book conflicts with the idea of The Fall when he argues that malaria was intentionally designed to kill people. (Where’s Ben Stein on this one? Point due to RBH.) It appears that ID’s big tent has become too small to allow Michael Behe to remain inside. Via: Larry Arnhart at Darwinian Conservatism Brian Switek at Laelaps John Lynch at Stranger Fruit ...

Ross Anderson, journalist and former Senior Fellow of the Discovery Institute, gives an interesting history of the founding of the organization. He describes how DI got into the intelligent design business, which has proved to be its major source of funding. About two years ago, the Discovery Institute founded the Biologic Institute to perform scientific research. At long last, they finally have a website up, and its cast of characters contains many names recognizable from the film “Expelled.” Still no scientific theory of intelligent design, however.

John Derbyshire of National Review has written about “Expelled." A couple of key paragraphs: I think this willful act of deception has corrupted creationism irredeemably. The old Biblical creationists were, in my opinion, wrong-headed, but they were mostly honest people. The “intelligent design” crowd lean more in the other direction. Hence the dishonesty and sheer nastiness, even down to plain bad manners, that you keep encountering in ID circles. It’s by no means all of them, but it’s enough to corrupt and poison the creationist enterprise, which might otherwise have added something worthwhile to our national life, if only by way of entertainment value. … And now here is Ben Stein, sneering and scoffing at Darwin, a man who spent decades observing and pondering the natural world — that world Stein glimpses through the window of his automobile now and then, when he’s not chattering into his cell phone. Stein claims to be doing it in the name of an alternative theory of the origin of species: Yet no such alternative theory has ever been presented, nor is one presented in the movie, nor even hinted at. There is only a gaggle of fools and fraudsters, gaping and pointing like Apaches on seeing their first locomotive: “Look! It moves! There must be a ghost inside making it move!” Quite right. There is no scientific theory of intelligent design. UPDATE (May 1, 2008): Commenter tom points out a subsequent Derbyshire post about Ben Stein’s remarkable statement on the Trinity Broadcasting Network that while “Love of God and compassion and empathy leads you to a very glorious place … science leads you to killing people." Ben Stein is a shameful, despicable human being. ...

Jeff Shallit has a post at his Recursivity blog about some “comical misunderstandings” by intelligent design advocates Denyse O’Leary and Robert Marks. In O’Leary’s case, the misunderstanding is expected, but Marks is an engineering professor at Baylor University who should know better.

Jeff Shallit talks about Discovery Institute Fellow David Berlinski, notable as one of the few advocates of intelligent design who is not an evangelical Christian. He’s also not a scientist or a mathematician; he has a Ph.D. in philosophy from Princeton. Although that’s a top school for philosophy in the U.S., Berlinski hasn’t been working as a professional philosopher, either. Of course, he was touted as an expert in “Expelled.”

At the Evolved and Rational blog, John Ray gives a review of “Expelled” from a filmmaking perspective: Cinematically, Expelled gets off to a lovely start. First-time director Nathan Frankowski chooses a nice, rich level of contrast and uses it to create some sparkling opening shots of our nation’s capitol. Those who knew what they were in for when they walked into the theater (presumably, most of the film’s so-far few attendees) were given an artistic visual rough outline of where the film was going. By the time we see Ben Stein taking a deep breath, looking indeed like “the little investigative journalist that could” in his trademark adorable little sneakers, the audience is practically eager to believe whatever he has to say. ...

In an interview with Newsweek, Ben Stein falsely stated that: There are a number of scientists and academics who’ve been fired, denied tenure, lost tenure or lost grants because they even suggested the possibility of intelligent design. The most egregious is Richard Sternberg at the Smithsonian, the editor of a magazine that published a peer-reviewed paper about ID. He lost his job.Sternberg was never employed by the Smithsonian and never lost his unpaid Research Associate position there. He never worked for any Smithsonian magazine, and resigned from his position as editor of The Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washington six months before the publication of the Stephen Meyer intelligent design article which he approved with inappropriate review. The Smithsonian responded to Newsweek: Sternberg has never been employed by the Smithsonian Institution. Since January 2004, he has been an unpaid research associate in the departments of invertebrate and vertebrate zoology at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History. Dr. Sternberg continues to enjoy full access to research facilities at the museum. Moreover, Stein’s assertion that Sternberg was removed from a Smithsonian publication is not true. The Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washington is an independent journal and is not affiliated with the Smithsonian.(Via Dispatches from the Culture Wars.)

I agree with Orac at Respectful Insolence, contra bioethicist Arthur Caplan, that “Expelled”’s argument that Darwinism was a contributing cause of (the main cause of?) the Holocaust doesn’t constitute Holocaust denial. Historical Comments Eamon Knight (2008-04-24): Yeah. "Expelled" abuses the Holocaust in a despicable way, but to call that "Holocaust Denial" is an abuse of that term.

Commenters “paul” and Jay Rogers claimed here that “Expelled” “is not a Christian movie." Yet Troy Britain points out that the “leadership guide” distributed at the “Expelled” website is filled with statements which closely resemble quotations from young-earth creationist literature published by the Institute for Creation Research, an explicitly Christian organization. UPDATE (April 25, 2008): If “Expelled” isn’t a Christian movie, why does the “Expelled: The Movement” website look like a Christian website–promoting Christian bands, Christian magazines, and Christian books by apologists like Lee Strobel, as well as young-earth creationism-promoting ministries like Coral Ridge Ministries (of the late D. James Kennedy, one of the most dishonest purveyors of bogus young-earth creationist arguments who has lived on this planet)?

Click the image for the facts that “Expelled” doesn’t give you. This post is a placeholder to report on “Expelled”’s weekend box office and the accuracy of my five predictions about the film, as well as a few more I’ll add here. My five predictions were that “Expelled” will: (1) be on fewer than 800 screens, (2) will have an initial weekend box office of less than $2 million, with (3) a per-screen take of less than $2,500, (4) won’t break the top ten despite it being a slow opening week, and (5) will make less than $10 million in box office take by the end of 2008 (though it may make more than that through DVD sales).Prediction (1) is already falsified, since it’s opening in 1,052 theaters. Prediction (4) may well be wrong due to how weak this weekend is for new films–it’s pretty clear that #1 and #2 will be “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” and “The Forbidden Kingdom.” Al Pacino’s “88 Minutes” is also opening in many theaters and has the draw of its star, but it’s getting terrible reviews. C.S. Strowbridge at The-Numbers estimates that “Expelled” will only need a $3 million opening weekend to make the top ten, so my predictions are at least consistent with each other. Looking at the list of top Christian films below, I see that the most recent “Veggie Tales” movie, “The Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything,” came in at number 6 in January 2008 with an opening weekend of $4.2 million on 1,337 screens. I doubt that “Expelled” will do that well, though I expect (6) it will break the top ten in the Christian films category, probably about to the eighth position. Looking at controversial films, however, I think it’s unlikely to make the top twenty–(7) it will probably end up around 22nd at best, beating “The Last Temptation of Christ.” Documentaries are a bit easier, and it could very well make the top ten, but (8) I wouldn’t expect it to get above the seventh slot. Finally, (9) I expect to see its theater counts drop rapidly starting next week, losing at least 500 theaters by next Friday as its audience sees the film and more popular entries displace it in the new week. UPDATE (April 19, 2008): I expect that predictions (2) and (4) may be falsified; a weekend take of $3-4 million looks likely after Friday’s estimated take of $1,126,000 and its coming in at #8 on Friday. #1-#7 ahead of “Expelled” were: “The Forbidden Kingdom,” “Forgetting Sarah Marshall,” “Prom Night,” “88 Minutes,” “21,” “Nim’s Island,” and “Street Kings.” Prediction (3) looks like it will easily be proven correct; “Expelled” earned $1,070 per-theater on Friday, making it #5 for per-theater take. UPDATE (April 20, 2008): Prediction (2) has been falsified as the current estimated box office take is $3,152,896. Prediction (4) looks like it will be falsified, with “Expelled” barely cracking the top ten–it has been passed by “Horton Hears a Who” and looks like it will be #9 for the weekend. Prediction (3) looks like it will be false, too, though in my defense I intended to predict a per-screen daily average take rather than a per-theater take for the entire weekend. Saturday’s take was $941/theater, versus Friday’s $1,145, and Sunday looks like it will be lower still (projected to be $911/theater). UPDATE (April 21, 2008): “Expelled”’s weekend take has been revised downward from the estimate, to $2,970,848, or $2,824 per-theater. So my prediction (3), taken the way I said it rather than meant it, was not wrong by much. It also came in at #10 for the weekend (#9 was Leatherheads), so prediction (4) was falsified in the most minimal way possible. Predictions (5)-(9) appear to be on solid ground. Sunday’s take was only $737/theater, and it’s all downhill from here. UPDATE (April 24, 2008): The-Numbers has posted its list of theater counts for the weekend of April 25, 2008, and “Expelled” isn’t on the list. I’d guess this means they just don’t have the information yet, rather than that it’s not appearing in any theater (since none of last week’s openers and only one of this weekend’s openers are yet listed), but we’ll soon find out if my prediction (9) is correct and it is down to 552 or fewer theaters. (If Arizona is an indication, the drop may not occur until next week.) Box Office Mojo is now reporting “Expelled”’s theater count at 1,041 for its second weekend, a drop of 11 theaters, which falsifies prediction (9). It looks like it’s not common for a huge drop in theater counts to occur in the first week, so this was probably a dumb prediction unless the movie was a total bomb, which it hasn’t been. I think a 500-theater drop is much more likely for next week, however–call that prediction (10). For this weekend, I suspect we’ll see each day’s average take in the $500-$700 per-theater range, or $500,000-$700,000 total per day; probably closer to the low end, and thus ending the weekend with a total take of between $5.4M and $6M, and leaving prediction (5) accurate unless it turns out to be popular internationally. It will also probably drop out of the top ten starting today. UPDATE (April 26, 2008): “Expelled” began its second weekend with (The-Numbers’ estimate) a $505,000 take ($485/theater) on Friday, even lower than I guessed yesterday. Box Office Mojo’s estimate is even lower: $450,000 ($432/theater). UPDATE (April 27, 2008): The second weekend’s estimated take is $1,378,867 ($1,325/theater, The-Numbers) or $1,379,000 ($1,324/theater, Box Office Mojo), which will put the total at about $5.2M, below the lower end of my guess on Thursday, with a total of about $5.2M. UPDATE (April 28, 2008): The weekend’s estimated take is now $1,395,000 ($1340/theater), with “Expelled” ranked at #13, according to Box Office Mojo. Looks like it followed the more normal pattern with a Saturday peak ($529,000) and less on Friday ($452,000; The-Numbers estimates $505,000 for Friday) and Sunday ($414,000), all still estimates. Today will probably drop well below $200,000. UPDATE (April 29, 2008): Monday’s take was $157,191 ($151/theater), though the rank went up to #12. UPDATE (May 2, 2008): “Expelled” is staying around longer than I would have imagined, but it has now dropped 386 theaters to 655, and its daily box office take will suffer accordingly. It looks like “Expelled” is going to end up doing about the same amount business as “Megiddo: The Omega Code 2,” and not as well as “The End of the Spear,” two Christian movies that were previously distributed by Rocky Mountain Pictures. Prediction (5) looks dead on (less than $10 million in box office by the end of 2008); prediction (6) looks like it was too generous (“Expelled” should easily break into the top ten on Christian films, but it now looks unlikely to reach #9, let alone #8); prediction (7) also looks too generous (hitting #22 on the “controversial” film list; #23 or #24 looks more likely, though Box Office Mojo has decided not to list “Expelled” in that category at all); prediction (8) is easy at this point (it won’t reach #7 on the documentary list; it looks like even breaking into the top 10 is out of reach). So my prediction accuracy was about as good as coin flipping. I was way off on theater count-related predictions, but more accurate on revenue and rank-related predictions. But enough about those predictions. I’ll continue to update this post with the data until it drops completely out of the theaters. Some websites for statistics: “Expelled” box office numbers and rating at The-Numbers: 4/19/2008: “Expelled” came in at #8 for Friday, with an estimated box office take of $1,126,000, and a per-theater take of $1,070 (ranked #5). The-Numbers rating: 3.75/10 (16 votes; 25% rated it 10 and 62.5% rated it 1). 4/20/2008: “Expelled” has dropped to #9 for the weekend, with an estimated box office take of $3,152,896 for the whole weekend, and a per-theater take of $2,997. 4/22/2008: The-Numbers gives different numbers than Box Office Mojo, though their weekend totals agree: Friday: $1,126,000 ($1070/theater), Saturday: $967,000 ($919/theater), Sunday: $878,000 ($835/theater), for an opening weekend total of $2,970,848 ($2,824/theater). Monday: $238,804 ($227/theater). 04/23/2008: Tuesday, April 22: $227,232 ($216/theater). Total: $3,436,884. 04/25/2008: Wednesday, April 23: $234,596 ($223). Thursday, April 24: $231,440 ($220). Friday, April 25: $505,000 ($485), ranked #13. Total: $4,408,000. 4/30/2008: Still no numbers for Saturday or Sunday. Monday, April 28: $157,191 ($151). 5/1/2008: Tuesday, April 29: $162,396 ($156). Wednesday, April 30: $159,273 ($153). 5/2/2008: Thursday, May 1: $158,232 ($152). 5/5/2008: May 2-4 weekend: $683,552 ($1,042/theater). 5/6/2008: Monday, May 5: $66,912 ($102/theater). 5/8/2008: Tuesday, May 6: $74,128 ($113), Wednesday, May 7: $73,472 ($112). 5/9/2008: Thursday, May 8: $78,720 ($120). Total: $6,906,488. 5/12/2008: Friday, May 9-Sunday, May 11: $328,836 ($818). Total: $7,235,324. 5/14/2008: Monday, May 12: $38,994 ($97); Tuesday, May 13: $35,778 ($89). 5/16/2008: Wednesday, May 14: $43,818 ($109), Thursday, May 15: $43,014 ($107). 5/28/2008: Monday, May 26: $16,019 ($193). Total: $7,598,071. Theater counts at The-Numbers: 4/18/2008: 1,052 4/25/2008: 1,041 5/2/2008: 656 5/9/2008: 402 5/16/2008: 210 5/23/2008: 83 “Expelled” ratings at Rotten Tomatoes: 4/18/2008 7:54 a.m. MST: 8% fresh (12 reviews, 11 rotten, 2.9/10 rating) 4/18/2008 11:48 a.m. MST: 7% fresh (14 reviews, 13 rotten, 2.9/10 rating) 4/18/2008 1:35 p.m. MST: 5% fresh (21 reviews, 20 rotten, 2.8/10 rating) 4/18/2008 2:56 p.m. MST: 9% fresh (22 reviews, 20 rotten, 3/10 rating) (Christianity Today review added) 4/19/2008 4:15 p.m. MST: 9% fresh (23 reviews, 21 rotten, 3/10 rating) 4/22/2008 6:23 p.m. MST: 12% fresh (25 reviews, 22 rotten, 3.2/10 rating) 4/24/2008 4:39 p.m. MST: 10% fresh (30 reviews, 27 rotten, 2.9/10 rating) 4/292008 8:08 a.m. MST: 9% fresh (33 reviews, 30 rotten, 3/10 rating) Top Critics: 0% fresh (13 reviews, 13 rotten, 2.6/10 rating) RT Community rating: 50% fresh (377 reviews, 188 rotten, 4.8/10 rating) “Expelled” ratings at IMDB: 4/19/2008 4:15 p.m. MST: Average rating is 3.3/10 with 402 very polarized votes–81 (20.1%) rated the movie a 10, 276 (68.7%) rated it a 1. Females like it more than males, and those under 18 and over 45 like it more than those in between. Average rating for males: 3.1 Average rating for females: 6.3 Average rating for under 18-year-olds: 6.7 (male 6.7, female 10) Average rating for 18-29 year-olds: 3.0 (male 2.5, female 7.7) Average rating for 30-44 year-olds: 3.0 (male 3.1, female 2.0) Average rating for 45+: 4.7 (male 4.5, female 5.5) 4/21/2008 10:36 a.m. MST: Average rating is now 3.6/10 with 659 votes, still highly polarized (22.2% 10, 61.0% 1), but now with a few more 7, 8, and 9 ratings (2.4%, 4.2%, and 4.7%, respectively), and a few more 2 and 3 ratings (2.1% and 1.2%, respectively). Average rating for males: 3.3 Average rating for females: 6.7 Average rating for under 18-year-olds: 6.5 (male 6.3, female 7.8) Average rating for 18-29 year-olds: 3.4 (male 3.0, female 7.7) Average rating for 30-44 year-olds: 3.3 (male 3.3, female 2.4) Average rating for 45+: 4.1 (male 4.0, female 7.7) 4/24/2008 4:41 p.m. MST: Average rating is now 3.6/10 with 2,332 votes (25.4% 10, 57.0% 1; 5.1% 9, 4.0% 8, 2.0% 7, 1.5% 3, 3.1% 2). Average rating for males: 3.4 Average rating for females: 5.4 Average rating for under 18-year-olds: 6.0 (male 5.5, female 7.9) Average rating for 18-29 year-olds: 3.2 (male 3.0, female 5.5) Average rating for 30-44 year-olds: 3.6 (male 3.6, female 3.4) Average rating for 45+: 4.6 (male 4.4, female 6.7) Expelled box office and ratings at Box Office Mojo: 4/19/2008 9:54 a.m. MST: Box Office Mojo readers rate the movie a B, with 110 votes (66.4% A, 3.6% B, 28.2% F). 4/20/2008 12:21 p.m. MST: “Expelled” took in less money on Saturday than on Friday–$990,000, or $941 per theater. Sunday’s projected take is $958,000. 4/21/2008 5:07 p.m. MST: The opening weekend box office take was $2,970,848, a per-theater average of $2,824. Sunday brought in only $775,000, or $737 per theater. 4/22/2008 6:25 p.m. MST: Monday’s box office take was $238,804, another 68.8% drop in daily gross, for a per-theater average of $227. Total take is now $3,209,652. Friday-Sunday have been updated: Friday: $1,208,748 ($1,149), Saturday: $996,244 ($947), Sunday: $765,856 ($728). The weekend total agrees with The-Numbers, but the daily totals do not. 4/23/2008 2:01 p.m. MST: Tuesday: $227,232 ($216); Wednesday: $234,596 ($223). Six-day total: $3,671,480. 4/24/2008 3:04 p.m. MST: Thursday: $231,440 ($220). Seven-day total: $3,902,920. 4/25/2008 6:56 p.m. MST: Friday: $450,000 ($432) (estimate), rank #13. Seven-day total: $4,353,000. 4/30/2008 1:58 p.m. MST: Saturday: $529,000 ($508), Sunday: $414,000 ($398), Monday: $157,191 ($151), Tuesday: $162,396 ($156). Weekend numbers are all still estimates. 5/2/2008 7:04 p.m. MST: Wednesday: $159,273 ($153), Thursday: $158,232 ($152). 5/5/2008 9:20 a.m. PDT: May 2-4 weekend: $684,000 ($1,042). 5/6/2008 7:40 p.m. PDT: Friday, May 2: $216,480 ($330), Saturday, May 3: $270,272 ($412), Sunday, May 4: $191,552 ($292), Monday, May 5: $66,912 ($102), ranked #15. Total: $6,680,168. 5/7/2008 7:53 p.m. PDT: Tuesday, May 6: $74,128 ($113). 5/8/2008 8:29 p.m. PDT: Wednesday, May 7: $73,472 ($112). 5/9/2008 5:17 p.m. PDT: Thursday, May 8: $78,720 ($120). 5/11/2008 4:01 p.m. MST: May 9-11 weekend: $328,836 ($818), in 402 theaters, ranked #21. 5/12/2008 7:39 p.m. MST: Friday, May 9: $100,902 ($251); Saturday, May 10: $120,600 ($300); Sunday, May 11: $107,334 ($267). Total: $7,235,324. 5/13/2008 3:55 p.m. MST: Monday, May 12: $38,994 ($97). 5/14/2008 8:04 p.m. MST: Tuesday, May 13: $35,778 ($89). 5/16/2008 7:40 p.m. MST: Wednesday, May 14: $43,818 ($109); Thursday, May 15: $43,014 ($107). Total: $7,396,927. 5/18/2008 6:13 p.m.: May 16-18 weekend estimate: $89,000 ($423) in 210 theaters. 5/21/2008 11:14 a.m. MST: May 16-18 weekend: $102,690 ($489). Total: $7,499,617. 5/28/2008 12:38 p.m. MST: May 23-26 four-day weekend: $46,314 ($558). (May 23-25: $35,109 ($423).) Total: $7,598,071. All-time top box office for documentaries at Box Office Mojo. All-time top box office for controversial films at Box Office Mojo. All-time top box office for Christian films at Box Office Mojo. ...