Arizona

As someone who skews heavily Extropian, I tend to be very optimistic about the future. This, in spite of being brought up by a paranoid (though otherwise intelligent) guy who always seemed convinced that a catastrophic economic collapse was imminent. In the '80s it was hyperinflation and thermonuclear war. In the '90s it was Bankruptcy 1995, followed by Y2k. Nowadays it's global warming (somehow we've managed to skirt around the issue of Peak Oil). All the parental paranoia helped to cultivate in me a healthy skepticism (though it got to me just enough to unfortunately keep me out of the stock market for far longer than I should have been). So, my optimistic/skeptical attitude has been keeping me up-beat about the real estate market in Phoenix - at least until recently. Given the way things have been going - neatly summarized by the two graphs on the right - a combination of factors now have me a little worried about the next year or so, at least. As I have argued elsewhere, Phoenix housing prices are too high. There's no reason to buy houses when you can rent them for a lot cheaper (and you thus can't make any money with them as investment properties, either). As you can see from the Appreciation graph above, even though houses are overpriced, as of the last data point on the graph we were still seeing a 10% appreciation over last year. Even the quarter-over-quarter line is still in the positive. I have to believe that we're going to be seeing a strong reversal of that trend in the coming months--or else we'll see whatever drove that crazy spike (in the second graph above) manifesting itself in some other area of the economy. Then there are those pesky notices of foreclosure [in the graph below, the blue line is monthly notices, while the orange line is the yearly moving average]. In spite of the fact that, according to some analysts, we haven't seen most of the interest-only ARMs kick into their higher payments, yet, we're already seeing an alarming uptick in notices of foreclosure (an indicator of people who've already been in serious financial difficulty for at least 5-6 months). February saw a total of 1577 trustee sale notices filed. That's off a bit from January's 1623, but when you consider that January had 21 business days for recording documents, against only 19 for February, there really was no slow down at all. In fact, as you can see from this graph, February 2007 had the highest average daily recordings (83/day) of all months for which I have data. It beat out January of '03 by 0.24 recordings/day. If the trend continues then this month should see over 1900! This may be good news for all the mythical short sale foreclosure investors, but it's bad news for pretty much everybody else. Historical Comments Einzige (2007-03-15): We're at the halfway point of the month and our current tally is 794.It would seem that 1588 trustee sale notices for March would be a safe bet. Not a record, but certainly an outlier. ...

The Phoenix Lights have returned, appearing on February 6 and 22. Oddly enough, both times happened to coincide with Air Force training with flares. UPDATE (February 25, 2007): The Arizona Republic continues to present the Phoenix lights as something mysterious, with extraterrestrial visitors being given equal weight to the flare explanation. Commenters on this news story are touting “image expert” Jim Dilettoso in an attempt to discount flares. The Phoenix New Times, by contrast, has been more skeptical, and exposed Dilettoso’s lack of qualifications.

Arizona Senate Majority Leader Thayer Verschoor (R-Gilbert) is at it again, with a bill that prohibits any public school or college instructor from advocating or opposing a political candidate or issue. This is the same legislator who last year proposed a bill that would have required colleges and universities to “provide a student with alternative coursework if the student deems regular coursework to be personally offensive” where “a course, coursework, learning material or activity is personally offensive if it conflicts with the student’s beliefs or practices in sex, morality or religion." While it is appropriate to define limits on partisan advocacy in public primary and secondary schools (where state educational standards define the curriculum and individual school districts set policy on appropriate classroom behavior), it doesn’t make sense to do it at the college level, where professors have much broader freedom to create their own course curricula. Verschoor was also one of several legislators accepting gifts from the Church of Scientology and sponsoring legislation for Scientology’s Citizens Commission on Human Rights last year.

In November, Arizonans voted to increase the state minimum wage from $5.15/hour to $6.75/hour, and there is now some anecdotal evidence of job loss for teen workers in South and Central Phoenix. Pepi’s Pizza in South Phoenix is laying off three of its 25 workers and Mary Coyle’s Ice Cream Parlor has cut back on hours and not replaced two workers who quit (despite the fact that its owner, Tom Kelly, voted for the increase). Kelly notes that he also increased the wages of those who were already making above minimum wage, with the net effect being an additional $2,000/month in expenses. The Arizona Republic article notes that the majority of the state’s 124,067 workers aged 16-19 already made well above minimum wage before the change, 30.1% of workers making minimum wage fall in that age range, and 30.4% of minimum wage workers live with a parent or parents.

Declan McCullagh at News.com reports that Sen. John McCain is preparing to hold a press conference with John Walsh of America’s Most Wanted and Miss America 2007 to announce a bill that will create a new mandate for Internet Service Providers to eavesdrop on all of their customers email and web traffic in search of child porn images. The act apparently requires ISPs to implement new technology to compare all images transmitted or received by their customers to a federal database of images (presumably via some one-way hash function, so that the database is not itself distributing child pornography), and to report any that are detected to John Walsh’s National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, a nonprofit, non-governmental organization that operates as a clearinghouse/proxy for federal and state law enforcement with Congressional mandate and federal funding. The new bill is known as the Securing Adolescents From Exploitation Online or SAFE Act, and is not to be confused with the 2003 SAFE Act (Security and Freedom Ensured), the 1997 SAFE Act (Security and Freedom through Encryption), or the 1998 SAFE Act (Safety Advancement For Employees).

As the result of a lawsuit in Michigan based on its 2004 constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, the Michigan Court of Appeals has ruled that domestic partnership benefits in negotiated contracts with public employee’s unions are null and void. The 2004 amendment was written by Citizens for the Protection of Marriage, who wrote in a pamphlet at the time that: Proposal 2 is Only about marriage. Marriage is a union between husband and wife. Proposal 2 will keep it that way. This is not about rights or benefits or how people choose to live their lives. This has to do with family, children and the way people are. It merely settles the question once and for all what marriage is-for families today and future generations.The Alliance Defense Fund, which backed the similar constitutional amendment here in Arizona, has made similar statements. Yet it was Patrick Gillen of the Thomas More Law Center who wrote the amendment for CfPM, and he was also behind the lawsuit that eliminated partnership benefits. Clearly, these people cannot be trusted, and Arizona was wise to reject the similar constitutional amendment here. UPDATE (May 14, 2008): The Michigan Supreme Court has upheld the denial of domestic partnership benefits as a result of their 2004 constitutional amendment. UPDATE (November 16, 2008): Patrick Gillen was also lead counsel for the Dover Area School District in the Kitzmiller v. Dover case, in which he defended the failed attempt to inject intelligent design into the public schools. ...

Scientology critic Keith Henson was arrested on Friday evening in Prescott, Arizona. Henson had been a fugitive since his conviction in Riverside County, California on April 26, 2001, on charges of interfering with a religion for his picketing of Scientology in Hemet, California and online jokes about a “[Tom] Cruise missile.” Henson was sentenced to six months in prison, but he fled to Ontario, Canada, where he unsuccessfully sought asylum as a victim of religious persecution. His application for refugee status was rejected in 2004, and he voluntarily left the country in September 2005, and has apparently been living in Arizona. Henson’s arrest has also been covered by the 10 Zen Monkeys blog and Sentient Developments blog. UPDATE (February 7, 2007): Declan McCullagh has reported more details at News.com. Henson’s bond was raised from $7,500 to $500,000 at the request of prosecutors, then reduced back to $5,000. He was released from jail Monday night, and must appear for an extradition hearing on March 5. He is being defended by a local libertarian of my acquaintance, Michael Kielsky. UPDATE (February 9, 2007): For a deeper look at exactly what caused Keith Henson to be convicted on a misdemeanor charge, see this ex-Scientologist’s web page of postings from Henson and Scientology critic Diane Richardson. Diane Richardson is a meticulously accurate critic who has come under fire from fellow critics for negative posts about critics rather than restricting her focus to Scientology. While I’ve disagreed with her from time to time, when it comes to facts she is quite reliable. She is, as am I, a skeptic of claims of “cult mind control." UPDATE (March 27, 2008): I’m quite remiss in updating this. Keith Henson was extradited to Riverside, California, after his hearings were delayed into May 2007, where he was jailed on August 11. He was subsequently released from jail in September and is now a free man. UPDATE (July 7, 2008): Keith served four months of a 180-day (six-month) sentence, and is currently on probation. The Riverside County Superior Court website lists the terms of his probation: Case HEM014371 Defendant 547981 HENSON, KEITH Probation Type: SUMMARY Granted: 05/30/2007 Expire: 05/29/2010 SUMMARY PROBATION GRANTED FOR A PERIOD OF 36 MONTHS, UNDER THE FOLLOWING TERMS AND CONDITIONS: 1) OBEY ALL LAWS, ORDINANCES, AND COURT ORDERS. 2) BE COMMITTED TO THE CUSTODY OF THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY SHERIFF FOR 180 DAYS; 3) PAY A FINE AND ASSESSMENT IN THE TOTAL OF $346.00, PAYABLE TO THE COURT, AS DIRECTED BY FINANCIAL SERVICES. 4) PAY VICTIM RESTITUTION, TO BE DETERMINED BY FINANCIAL SERVICES; ANY DISPUTE TO BE RESOLVED IN A COURT HEARING. PAY RESTITUTION (VICTIM) IN AN AMOUNT DETERMINED BY AND PAYABLE TO THE COURT, AS DIRECTED BY FINANCIAL SVCS; ANY DISPUTE TO BE RESOLVED IN A COURT HRG 5) NOT HAVE ANY NEGATIVE CONTACT WITH ANY MEMBER OF THE CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY. 6) ADDED TERM: DONT KNOWINGLY COME WITHIN 1000FT OF ANY 7) ADDED TERM: DONT ANNOY OR HARASS ANY MEMBER OF CHURCH OF

Arizona State Senator Karen Johnson (R, District 18-Mesa) is no stranger to stupidity. She was one of a number of legislators who got in bed with the Church of Scientology last year, accepting invitations to Scientology events and sponsoring anti-psychiatric legislation pushed by Scientology’s Citizens Commission on Human Rights (CCHR) front organization. Now she’s behind SCR 1026, a proposal to amend the Arizona Constitution to prevent courts from the ability to address violations of the separation of church and state: Her proposal, SCR 1026, would specifically bar courts from being able to grant any injunctions or other legal relief if the question involves “the acknowledgement of God as the sovereign source of law, liberty or government.” And that bar would remain in place whether the action were brought against the government as a whole or any state or local official.She goes on to demonstrate that she doesn’t understand the First Amendment’s Establishment Clause: Johnson said she is unhappy that judges in other states have ruled that the words “under God” have to come out of the Pledge of Allegiance, and that a monument of the Ten Commandments had to be removed from an Alabama courthouse. “We don’t want that,” she said. ...

This video of John McCain shows video clips of him saying one thing and then the opposite on a number of subjects including the war in Iraq, the Confederate flag, the religious right, and gay marriage. Some of these are a bit misleadingly edited, such as the gay marriage item, where it doesn’t look like he actually contradicted himself to me. Hat tip to Dispatches from the Culture Wars. ...

It’s been two months since my last update of Maricopa County’s Notices of Trustee’s Sales. January’s 1623 notices didn’t beat the past 145 months’ record high of 1738, like I initially thought they would. However, before you go shouting such fantastic news from the rooftops, you should know that 1623 is the second highest number. Here are the latest descriptive statistics: Trustee’s Sale Notices Mean917.2Median811Mode746Standard Deviation296.35814Range1256Minimum482Maximum1738Sum132994Count145 Since I started compiling this data I’ve noticed a sharp uptick in real estate gurus trying to sell info on the latest real estate investment fad: the “Short Sale” - a technique designed to get around the problem that most of the defaulting mortgages behind these sad numbers are less than 2 years old, and thus are tied to properties with zero equity. I’ll probably write a little more about this technique at some point over at Die Eigenheit. I promise to update this post as necessary.