Arizona

Gives you some idea of the local demographic and economic conditions (or at least what the people behind these signs believe it to be).

Last night Einzige and I attended the Goldwater Institute’s award dinner for Ayaan Hirsi Ali at the Phoenician resort in Scottsdale, where she was given the 2007 Goldwater Award for her work in support of freedom, in defense of women against the oppression they face in Islamic countries. Copies of her autobiographical book, Infidel, were given to each table and I obtained the copy at our table since most everyone at the table had already read it and no one accepted my challenge to fight for it. It was a rainy night and it was a huge event, with about 800 attendees. It took me about 25 minutes to get from the entrance of the Phoenician to the event venue, where I later heard that valets parked 400 cars for the event. It seemed as if the Phoenician wasn’t used to hosting an event of that size, which can’t possibly be true. I was extremely surprised to see that the schedule for the event included an invocation. I have attended multiple Goldwater events in the past (such as the screening of “Mr. Conservative”), but this was the first time I had been to one that included a prayer. I noted at the table that it seemed disrespectful in the extreme that an event honoring an atheist would begin with a prayer. The prayer itself was an ecumenical, non-sectarian “meditation” (as the individual who spoke referred to it) of the sort likely to be as offensive to hardcore Christians as it is to atheists for its failure to appeal to Jesus Christ, but it was still a public verbal appeal to an imaginary being for his approval and support. It reminded me a little bit of the “Agnostic’s Prayer” in Roger Zelazny’s book Creatures of Light and Darkness, which goes like this (p. 40): Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you [a man about to die in a “suicide show” who the speaker has put his hand upon the head of] be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness. Conversely, if not forgiveness but something else may be required to insure any possible benefit for which you may be eligible after the destruction of your body, I ask that this, whatever it may be, be granted or withheld, as the case may be, in such a manner as to insure your receiving said benefit. I ask this in my capacity as your elected intermediary between yourself and that which may not be yourself, but which may have an interest in the matter of your receiving as much as it is possible for you to receive of this thing, and which may in some way be influenced by this ceremony. Amen.And I continue to fail to understand why Christians cannot abide by Matthew 6:5-7. The dinner at the event was phenomenal, though portions were small (filet mignon was the main course). Steve Forbes gave a keynote speech which was well done; it was primarily a recounting of some of the basic principles necessary for economic freedom, such as the importance of the rule of law and a system of stable property rights. Regarding property rights, I was pleased that he commented on a survey of businesses and property in Egypt that found that most businesses and buildings were illegal under the country’s laws, and noted that this is common throughout the world. Having recently read Robert Neuwirth’s excellent book Shadow Cities, I’m aware that over a billion people in the world live in squatter cities where they are illegally occupying land and often develop their own informal property rights that are not legally enforceable but tend to be respected within their own communities. Countries which manage to give some kind of enforceable title to such people can dramatically unlock wealth and improve their conditions. The part of Forbes’ talk which most caught my attention, however, was his discussion of the current mortgage crisis. He stated that this is a mere blip, so long as the government doesn’t overreact. He claimed that there is perhaps $400-$500 billion in losses hiding in securitized mortgage packages, which should be easy for the market to take since that’s the amount lost in a bad day on the stock market. The concern is that government or bankers will overreact and withdraw liquidity from everyone (rather than just bad risks) at a time when it is needed. In my opinion, Forbes understates the risks because he repeatedly assumed that the problem exists only within subprime loans, which is already demonstrably false. American Home Mortgage of Tucson, which filed for bankruptcy in August, did not originate subprime loans at all, only “Alt-A” loans, which fall between prime and subprime. The root of the problem has been people of all levels of credit risk using their homes as ATMs who are now underwater, and in particular those using adjustable rate mortgages. This article from someone inside the mortgage industry sets out a worst-case scenario that I think is far more plausible than Forbes’ rosy picture, which fails to account for the cascading effects of foreclosures, bankruptcies, and loss of real estate jobs on the broader consumer-driven economy. But in any case, he predicts that the mortgage crisis will be over before the end of 2008, so by this time next year we will know who is right. Ayaan Hirsi Ali’s talk was actually an interview conducted by Darcy Olsen, the president of the Goldwater Institute, who asked her a series of questions about growing up in Somalia, her subsequent life, what motivated her to escape Islamic fundamentalism and her arranged marriage, and so forth. She was well-spoken (especially for a non-native speaker of English) and charming, and told of being inspired by works of fiction about individual freedom while living in a community that emphasized submission to family, tribe, and nation. Her sources of inspiration were all secular, of course, though surprisingly included Barbara Cartland romance novels and Nancy Drew mysteries as well as books like Huckleberry Finn. Afterward, I stood in line to get my book signed, and had a chance to speak to her directly. Although I thought of asking her what she thought of being honored at an event that opened with a prayer, our brief exchange went something like this: JL: Have you heard of the Internet Infidels? AHA: No. (She smiles.) JL: It’s at infidels.org, it is a group critical of religion. Are you familiar with Ibn Warraq? [I had also meant to mention Internet Infidels supporter Taslima Nasrin, but couldn’t remember her last name.] AHA: Yes. JL: Some of his material is published there, though it mostly focuses on Christianity, since it’s a bigger source of problems in this country. AHA: I think I would disagree that Christianity is a bigger problem than Islam in this country. JL: It’s Christianity that has control of the government here. And then I stepped away with my book, and joined the long line at valet parking right behind Barry Goldwater, Jr. I tipped my valet with a $20, which he seemed very pleased to receive, and then thought that I should have said “this is a tip from an atheist,” since I saw several other people (not Goldwater) apparently fail to tip at all, even though they were more elegantly dressed and driving vehicles several times the price of mine. Ayaan Hirsi Ali seems to be focused exclusively on Islam–not surprising given her history. Several of her answers were somewhat defensive of Christianity (no doubt appealing to her audience), at least by comparison to Islam, much like her response to me above. Yet the Bible contains teachings very similar to the Koran in regard to calling for the death of unbelievers, the subjection of women, slavery, and so forth–the difference is that there are fewer who endorse those teachings, perhaps in part because Christianity has gone through a Reformation while Islam has not. UPDATE: Note that Wikipedia reports that Hirsi Ali has admitted to falsifying some information in her application for asylum in the Netherlands (specifically her name, date of birth, and claim to have spent time in refugee camps on the border of Somalia and Kenya), and her family disputes her account of her forced marriage, though Hirsi Ali has provided letters from family members (including her father) to the New York Times which substantiate her account. It was the exposure of her fabrications on her asylum application that led her to step down as a Member of the Dutch Parliament and led to Rita Verdonk saying that her Dutch nationality was therefore invalid, which was subsequently overridden by vote of Parliament. This blog post quotes from a Reason magazine interview of Hirsi Ali that shows that she is somewhat extreme and illiberal in her position regarding Islam, as well as having some unusual ideas about Christianity (e.g., she thinks Catholics have a conception of God where there is no hell). One commenter at the Reason blog compared her to Ann Coulter. This post critiques her understanding of Islam as overly simplistic, like confusing all of Christianity with its most extreme fundamentalist varieties. UPDATE (February 20, 2008): I’ve just finished reading Hirsi Ali’s book, Infidel, and I highly recommend it. Contrary to my statement above, it wasn’t the “exposure of her fabrications on her asylum application that led her to step down” as an MP; she had been open with many people, including the press, about having used the name Ali instead of Magan on her asylum application and claiming to be a refugee from Somalia instead of a resident of Kenya fleeing a forced marriage to a Canadian. UPDATE (May 5, 2024): Since at least November of 2023, Hirsi Ali now identifies as a Christian, which for her seems to be a cultural stance not grounded in any reasons for believing Christianity to be true. UPDATE (January 11, 2025): Ayaan Hirsi Ali is no longer a remotely serious person. ...

I figured I’d present the foreclosure notice data a little differently, to make it easier visually to compare it with Maricopa County’s median price and sales data. If you’re interested in seeing the numbers prior to 2001, check out last month’s post. And, by the way, if you somehow found your way to this page via a Google search for “Phoenix foreclosures” or something similar and it’s not currently December of 2007, you’d do well to click here so you can see the latest information. November was yet another record month for notices of trustee’s sales in the Phoenix area, with 3543 filed. <img style=“display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;” src="/images/07NovNTR.png" border=“0” alt=“Maricopa County Notices of Trustee’s Sales, Jan 2001 to Nov 2007"id=“BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5139582868522735842” />Meanwhile, home sales are the lowest they’ve been since January of 2001. Note that the graph’s latest data point is from October, since ARMLS is not quick to update its stats, but I can’t imagine that November’s numbers are going to be any better, since traditionally it’s a slow month, regardless. <img style=“display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;” src="/images/sales.png” border=“0” alt=“Phoenix area home sales data"id=“BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5139583401098680562” />

The November 21, 2007 issue of Time magazine includes a story titled “Sunday School for Atheists," about how the Humanist Community Center in Palo Alto, California has been offering Sunday school classes for kids for the last three years. The article notes that similar programs are under consideration in Albuquerque, NM, Portland, OR, and Phoenix. It doesn’t mention it, but the Phoenix group considering offering such a program is the Humanist Society of Greater Phoenix, a group which has meetings for adults, often with quite interesting speakers, every two weeks. (Kat and I are members, but we have a pretty poor attendance record.) Also mentioned in the article are Camp Quest, a summer camp program operating in five states and Ontario, Canada, and the Carl Sagan Academy in Tampa, FL, the nation’s first humanist charter school. UPDATE: Mark at Protestant Pontifications has written a blog post on this Time magazine article, and I’ve submitted this comment: ...

From January through the end of October, there were 7,139 foreclosures in the metropolitan Phoenix area, compared to 1,072 foreclosures during the same period last year. It’s expected to hit 10,000 by the end of the year, compared to fewer than 2,000 last year.

U.S. foreclosure rates are double what they were last year, and the top states for foreclosures are: 1. Nevada 2. California 3. Florida 4. Michigan 5. Ohio 6. Colorado 7. Arizona 8. Georgia 9. Indiana 10. Texas 36% of homes for sale in Phoenix are vacant, either due to speculators getting caught holding the bag or people who have bought and moved to new homes without finding a buyer for their previous home. Average time to sell (for those houses that are actually selling) is 94 days, versus 73 days a year ago. Zillow seemed to have stopped updating Phoenix-area home prices on September 11, but they’ve now given an update with October 25 data, and my home’s “zestimate” value has dropped by 3.6% since the September 11 data. ...

Maricopa County’s Notices of Trustee’s Sales continued their record pace in October, totaling 3459… …and finally we’re seeing the effects of this downward pressure on the metro Phoenix median home price (data courtesy ARMLS)… I might be persuaded to buy a place again in six months or so.

Here’s a blog, Watts Up With That?, that documents with photographs some weather stations that are taking temperature measurements under conditions that violate standards for site locations. There are photos of temperature sensors on concrete, on asphalt parking lots, next to buildings, and close to multiple air conditioners. I was disappointed to see that the University of Arizona, where I went to graduate school, was an offender, with its weather station located in the middle of a parking lot (pictured). Anthony Watts’ blog describes the rules for siting weather stations, shows pictures of violators and explains why what they’re doing is a problem, and shows the data from those stations. There are all sorts of bias-correcting measures applied to temperature measurements, but I don’t think they are correcting for sensors that are located in the path of air conditioner exhaust. This might be a reason to prefer satellite data. (NCDC’s website has a huge collection of climate-related data from many sources.) UPDATE: Hume’s Ghost points out in the comments that bad sites show the same long-term warming trends as good sites, with a link to his blog, The Daily Doubt, on the subject. UPDATE (July 31, 2009): Peter Sinclair’s Climate Change Crock of the Week has done a video on Anthony Watts’ claims–and Watts has misused the DMCA to get the video taken down. But it’s back! UPDATE (February 5, 2010): The U.S. Climate Reference Network provides further evidence that surface station siting problems are not responsible for anomalous temperatures. The linked-to post at Rabett Run includes a comparison of the University of Arizona COOP station with readings from the Sonora Desert Museum in Tucson. ...

As we set off to take our dogs for a walk down the Highline Canal this morning, we ran into this hound dog coming towards us in the opposite direction. He has a collar, but no tags. He’s friendly and well-fed, and (surprisingly for this neighborhood) a neutered male. We’ve put him in our front yard and given him water, and put his photo up on Pets911.com. With any luck, his owners are somewhere nearby. (If they’re close enough, they should be hearing his distinctive hound bark…) UPDATE (1:30 p.m.): His owner put a “lost dog” ad on azcentral.com that we just found, and came and got him. He normally has tags, but they came off when he got out about a week ago. ...

A friend who took his family to the Arizona State Fair noticed a booth from the Arizona Origins Science Association last night, and so pointed me to their website. A featured link on the front page says: Have you been taught or indoctrinated? - Take a test - View the answers The test answers show that this group uncritically accepts bad arguments, such as bogus arguments for a young earth (including making up the nonexistent isotope Po 234), claiming that the extinct pig’s tooth of “Nebraska man” was ever accepted scientific evidence for human evolution, claiming that because Peking Man and Java Man are now classified as Homo erectus that it’s purely “human” and thus not evidence for evolution, claiming that Australopithecus afarensis is no different from a chimpanzee or bonobo, claiming that all radiometric dating methods are based on untestable assumptions while ignoring the internal checks provided by isochron dating and comparisons of multiple methods where their view has no explanation for agreement, claiming that there are no known beneficial mutations, claiming that index fossils and the ages of geologic strata are the only things used to mutually validate each other, and so on. It’s as if they’ve never seen the talk.origins website or the index of creationist claims. The president of the group, Dr. Joseph M. Kezele, Jr., was previously mentioned on this blog as one of the five Darwin-denying doctors in Arizona who has signed on as a supporter of the anti-evolution “Physicians and Surgeons for Scientific Integrity." UPDATE: Of special interest on the Arizona Origins Science Association website are responses to surveys about creationism that they sent to various Arizona churches. I was quite pleased to see that many local churches have given responses that challenge AZOSA’s young-earth creationism. For example, the response from Dale Hallberg, Lead Pastor at Esperanza Lutheran Church, writes a comment on the statement “The Earth is relatively young (ten thousand or less years old)" (PDF) after marking it “D” for disagree: “Get serious!" Fr. William K. Young of St. Christopher’s Episcopal Church, in response to the statement “A person must accept Jesus Christ as their personal savior to be saved from eternal separation from God,” marks it “D” and comments (PDF) “If so, God help us all!" Dr. Roger Miller, interim pastor at the First Congregational United Church of Christ, added an entire page of comments (PDF) on the survey after he had viewed AZOSA’s website, and writes (in part) that “Sadly, fundamentalism is, per solid research, a demonstration of limited cognitive complexity capacity. Your work, though spirited and apologetically well intentioned, shows both limited understanding of scripture and archaeology. As an M.D., I would hope you’d spend time working for universal healthcare and lower prescription drug costs and leave the theological work to those so trained and the science to those trained in their fields.”