I’ve been reading Ross Anderson’s epic tome, Security Engineering: A Guide to Building Dependable Distributed Systems (2nd edition, 2008, Wiley), and have just gotten into the chapter on biometrics (ch. 15). Section 15.5.2, on Crime Scene Forensics, points out three major criminal cases where fingerprint matches have been in error, including the Brandon Mayfield case which I wrote about at this blog back in 2007. Anderson points out that law enforcement agencies have claimed to juries “that forensic results are error-free when FBI proficiency exams have long had an error rate of about one percent, and misleading contextual information can push this up to ten percent or more” (pp. 470-471). It’s probability at work: ...

Now on YouTube, “In God We Teach," a documentary about Matt LaClair’s exposure of his U.S. History teacher’s proselytization in the public school classroom. Historical Comments Alan (2012-05-31): Very well done documentary. Well worth the time to watch. Thanks for the link. – Alan Ed Darrell (2013-01-30): Amazing to me that in 2011 that was still a controversy: http://timpanogos.wordpress.com/2007/02/20/fisking-paszkiewicz-or-virtual-carnage-in-kearny-nj/#more-447 ...

Documents leaked from the Heartland Institute reveal its funding sources (including Charles G. Koch and an unnamed single donor providing about 20% of their total revenue) and recipients of funding (including $5,000/mo to Fred Singer and a plan to raise $90,000 for blogger Anthony Watts in 2012). The Heartland Institute is essentially the Tobacco Institute for climate change denial. See previous posts as this blog with the Heartland Institute tag. UPDATE (February 18, 2012): It appears that one of the documents, the one with the most embarrassing statements, was a forgery–but the statements I’ve made above all appear to be confirmed. UPDATE (February 21, 2012): Climate scientist Peter Gleick has confessed to being the leaker of the documents, but claims the apparently forged document was mailed to him anonymously and he scanned it in before distributing it with the others which he obtained by subterfuge after receiving the anonymous mailing. The oddities and errors in the forged document, however, strongly suggest Gleick himself forged the document after receiving the others. ...

I was asked earlier today if I could give my opinion on whether the work-from-home opportunity advertised at the domain onlineprofitmasterssystem.com is a scam. A quick bit of research produced some interesting results, my conclusion is that it is almost definitely a scam, by people with a history of promoting scams. First, the domain registration: Registrant: Phillip Gannuscia 1780 W. 9000 South #315 West Jordan, Utah 84088 United States Registered through: Go Daddy Domain Name: ONLINEPROFITMASTERSSYSTEM.COM Created on: 04-Nov-11 Expires on: 04-Nov-12 Last Updated on: 29-Nov-11 Administrative Contact: Gannuscia, Phillip [email protected] 1780 W. 9000 South #315 West Jordan, Utah 84088 United States (801) 803-5769 Fax – The very domain and URL and web content of the page are already screaming red flags, and there are more to be found in the above data. It’s a recently registered domain, and the contact physical address appears to be a private mail drop service. Both the address and telephone number listed are associated with multiple other companies (e.g., BBB F-rated eVenture International, run by Richard Scott Nemrow, who was cited multiple times by the Utah Division of Consumer Protection in 2009) and domain names (e.g., makerichesfromhome.com, educationtrainingsonline.com, executivelearningonline.com, learningresourceontheweb.com, and lightlifemaster.com) which also look like scams,. This particular company, Online Profit Masters, has an F rating from the BBB. The named contact, Phillip Gannuscia, has an email address with someone else’s name, [email protected], apparently Essent VP Nathan L. Kozlowski, a former Mormon missionary. Does Gannuscia even exist, or is the name just an alias for Kozlowski? The company whose domain is used here for the contact email address, Essent Media LLC, another Richard Scott Nemrow company, has a corporate registration which expired in 2010. I’d steer clear of any business with these guys. And if you come across this blog post because you’ve already been ripped off by them (like this guy reports), I suggest you file a complaint with the Internet Crime Complaint Center as well as contacting your local law enforcement agency. ...

I recently had a few opportunities on a plane to catch up on some reading and podcasts.  A few of the more interesting things I came across: A bunch of interesting articles in The Economist for the past few weeks: January 28-February 3, 2012: "Saving Lives: Scattered Saviors" -- harnessing social media and mobile devices to deploy first aid faster than an ambulance can arrive (United Hatzalah in Israel believes it will be able to have first responders on the scene within 90 seconds). "China's new tribes: Ant tribes and mortgage slaves" -- a new vocabulary in Mandarin describing emerging social groups in China.  (Reminds me of Cory Doctorow's Eastern Standard Tribe.) "Affinity fraud: Fleecing the flock" -- the rise in affinity fraud, especially religious affinity fraud, during the economic downturn, and why it works so effectively.  (Also see my blog post from 2008 and another on the same topic from the Secular Outpost in 2006.)  Briefly mentioned is the Baptist Foundation of Arizona affinity fraud, which victimized my step-grandfather by stealing most of his retirement savings. "Visible-light communication: Tripping the light fantastic" -- an update on where we stand with Li-Fi (using LED lighting as a mechanism for data transmission). February 4-10, 2012: "Synaesthesia: Smells like Beethoven" -- A new study finds correlations between odors and sounds, even among people who are not synaesthetes. "Scientific publishing: The price of information" -- On the boycott of Elsevier by scientists tired of excessive charges for journals, and the competition from arXiv and PLoS. "Biomimetics: Not a scratch" -- lessons from the microstructure of scorpion armor for reducing wear rates on aircraft engines and helicopter rotors. Podcasts: Philosophy Bites interview with Alain de Botton on Atheism 2.0: de Botton, author of Religion for Atheists, argues that there are good and useful components of religion which can be secularized, and that it is as legitimate to borrow things we like from religion while discarding what we don't as it is to prefer different kinds of art and music.  (Also see the Token Skeptic interview with de Botton and watch his TED talk.)  I think his picture of religion, like that of Scott Atran (In Gods We Trust) and Pascal Boyer (Religion Explained) makes more sense than the way some atheists talk about it as though fundamentalist religion is the essence of religion, and should be discarded completely (which doesn't seem likely to happen as long as we live in social communities). Rationally Speaking interview with Joseph Heath: Heath, author of Economics without Illusions: Debunking the Myths of Modern Capitalism (Canadian title: Filthy Lucre: Economics for People who Hate Capitalism, which the publishers decided wouldn't sell in the U.S.), talks about misunderstandings of economics on both the right and the left.  (Also see this BloggingHeads TV interview of Heath by Will Wilkinson, who writes: "The section on right-wing fallacies is largely on the money and a great challenge for rote libertarians and conservatives. The section of left-wing fallacies is terrific, and it would be terrific if more folks on the left were anywhere near as economically literate as Heath.")  Heath's "Rationally Speaking pick" also sounds fascinating, Janos Kornai's The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism, which explains the creative but ultimately futile ways that human beings tried to replace markets with planning and design.)

The title of this post is the title of my multi-book review article in the current issue of Skeptic magazine, which is primarily about last year’s Inside Scientology: The Story of America’s Most Secretive Religion by Janet Reitman and The Church of Scientology: A History of a New Religion by Hugh Urban. It’s a very long article for a book review in the magazine, running from pp. 18-27 with a couple of sidebars and a couple pages of footnotes. What I had in mind when I started writing it wasn’t what I ended up with–my envisioned article would probably be more like a book that tells the story of Scientology’s two wars with the Internet, which Reitman only devoted a few paragraphs to. (If that never happens, the best place to find the information in question is in the writings of Village Voice editor Tony Ortega, who has done more than anyone to cover those topics.) I also would have liked to have done a bit more analysis of Urban’s book, which I think is a bit wishy-washy in places in the name of academic objectivity, and makes a few promises at the beginning that it fails to deliver on as though it were rushed to completion. But I think it came out OK, and I recommend Reitman’s book as the best and most up-to-date single overview of Scientology and its history, and Urban’s for its coverage of Scientology’s battles with the IRS for religious tax exemption and its contribution to explaining what Hubbard was up to when he created Scientology. I think Hubbard died believing his own nonsense, because some Scientology doctrines literally became true for him–he was the one person in Scientology who really could dream things up and make them happen around him, through the efforts of his devotees. I also hoped to devote a bit more space to what I allude to in my first footnote, referencing John Searle’s The Construction of Social Reality, pp. 90-93 and 117-119, about how institutions can quickly collapse when collective agreement about social facts is undermined, as seems to be happening at an accelerating pace within the Church of Scientology. (All posts on Scientology at this blog–65 so far since 2005–can be found here. An overview of my involvement in Scientology’s battles with the Internet is in my 2006 “Scientology Sampler” post, which was updated with a 2009 post, “Scientology v. the Internet history lesson.") UPDATE (26 January 2012): Tony Ortega, editor-in-chief at the Village Voice and prolific investigative journalist on the subject of Scientology, says very nice things about my article and Michael Shermer’s associated article in Skeptic at his “Runnin’ Scared” blog, where there are lots of comments. This issue of Skeptic should be available in all Barnes & Noble stores beginning around the first of February.

I picked up the pace a bit in 2011, with a little help from acquiring a Kindle in July... Books read in 2011: David Allen, Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity Dan Ariely, The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic Kevin Behr, Gene Kim, and George Spafford, The Visible Ops Handbook: Implementing ITIL in 4 Practical and Auditable Steps John W. Creswell, Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches, Third Edition Gordon R. Dickson, The Alien Way  Daniel Domscheit-Berg, Inside Wikileaks: My Time with Julian Assange at the World's Most Dangerous Website John Duignan with Nicola Tallant, The Complex: An Insider Exposes the Covert World of the Church of Scientology Jerry Fodor and Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini, What Darwin Got Wrong, Updated Edition   Floyd J. Fowler, Jr., Survey Research Methods, 4th Edition Benjamin Franklin, The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin  Jefferson Hawkins, Counterfeit Dreams: One Man's Journey into and out of the World of Scientology Alan Haworth, Anti-Libertarianism: Markets, Philosophy and Myth Marc Headley, Blown for Good: Behind Scientology's Iron Curtain Gene Kim, Paul Love, and George Spafford, Visible Ops Security: Achieving Common Security and IT Operations in 4 Practical Steps Jon Krakauer, Under the Banner of Heaven: A Story of Violent Faith Peter D. Kramer, Should You Leave? Lawrence M. Krauss, Quantum Man: Richard Feynman's Life in Science Patrick Lencioni, The Three Signs of a Miserable Job: A Fable for Managers (and their employees)  Stephen L. Macknik and Susana Martinez-Conde, Sleights of Mind: What the Neuroscience of Magic Reveals About Our Everyday Deceptions Nancy Many, My Billion Year Contract: Memoir of a Former Scientologist  Robert McLuhan, Randi's Prize: What Sceptics Say About the Paranormal, Why They Are Wrong and Why It Matters Ben Mezrich, The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook: A Tale of Sex, Money, Genius and Betrayal Delbert C. Miller and Neil J. Salkind, Handbook of Research Design & Social Measurement, 6th Edition Kevin Mitnick with William L. Simon, Ghost in the Wires: My Adventures as the World's Most Wanted Hacker  Harry Markopolos, No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller Milton L. Mueller, Networks and States: The Global Politics of Internet Governance Ronald L. Numbers, Galileo Goes to Jail and Other Myths About Science and Religion Judith Pintar and Steven Jay Lynn, Hypnosis: A Brief History Kevin Poulsen, Kingpin: How One Hacker Took Over the Billion-Dollar Cybercrime Underground  Janet Reitman, Inside Scientology: The Story of America's Most Secretive Religion Mary Roach, Packing for Mars: The Curious Science of Life in the Void Jon Ronson, The Psychopath Test: A Journey Through the Madness Industry  Benjamin Rosenbaum and Cory Doctorow, True Names Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark David Schmidtz and Robert E. Goodin, Social Welfare and Individual Responsibility: For and Against  Amy Scobee, Scientology: Abuse at the Top Robert Sellers, Hellraisers: The Life and Inebriated Times of Richard Burton, Richard Harris, Peter O'Toole, and Oliver Reed Tom Standage, The Victorian Internet: The Remarkable Story of the Telegraph and the Nineteenth Century's On-Line Pioneers John Steinbeck, Travels with Charley in Search of America  Jim Steinmeyer, The Last Greatest Magician in the World: Howard Thurston versus Houdini & the Battles of the American Wizards Donald Sturrock, Storyteller: The Authorized Biography of Roald Dahl Nassim Nicolas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Second Edition) Mark Twain, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn  Hugh B. Urban, The Church of Scientology: A History of a New Religion (Previously: 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.) Hume's Ghost (2012-01-01): Of those I've only read Huck Finn, Under the Banner of Heaven, and Demon Haunted World. ...

This recent comparison has been making the rounds: As have a few other recent examples: But this has gone on for many years.  A few others from a few years back: I suspect the weekly news magazines are simply basing their cover decisions on what sells in the U.S.  Sad. Historical Comments Michael C. Rush (2011-11-27): Which came first, the chicken or the egg? ...

A few prominent skeptics have been arguing that science and medicine should rely upon Bayesian epistemology. Massimo Pigliucci, in his book Nonsense on Stilts, on the Rationally Speaking podcast, and in his column in the Skeptical Inquirer, has suggested that scientists should best proceed with a Bayesian approach to updating their beliefs. Steven Novella and Kimball Atwood at the Science-Based Medicine blog (and at the Science-Based Medicine workshops at The Amazing Meeting) have similarly argued that what distinguishes Science-Based Medicine from Evidence-Based Medicine is the use of a Bayesian approach in accounting for the prior plausibility of theories is superior to simply relying upon the outcomes of randomized controlled trials to determine what’s a reasonable medical treatment. And, in the atheist community, Richard Carrier has argued for a Bayesian approach to history, and in particular for assessing claims of Christianity (though in the linked-to case, this turned out to be problematic and error-ridden). It’s worth observing that Bayesian epistemology has some serious unresolved problems, including among them the problem of prior probabilities and the problem of considering new evidence to have a probability of 1 [in simple conditionalization]. The former problem is that the prior assessment of the probability of a hypothesis plays a huge factor in the outcome of whether a hypothesis is accepted, and whether that prior probability is based on subjective probability, “gut feel,” old evidence, or arbitrarily selected to be 0.5 can produce different outcomes and doesn’t necessarily lead to concurrence even over a large amount of agreement on evidence. So, for example, Stephen Unwin has argued using Bayes’ theorem for the existence of God (starting with a prior probability of 0.5), and there was a lengthy debate between William Jefferys and York Dobyns in the Journal of Scientific Exploration about what the Bayesian approach yields regarding the reality of psi which didn’t yield agreement. The latter problem, of new evidence, is that a Bayesian approach considers new evidence to have a probability of 1, but evidence can itself be uncertain. And there are other problems as well–a Bayesian approach to epistemology seems to give special privilege to classical logic, not properly account for old evidence [(or its reduction in probability due to new evidence)] or the introduction of new theories, and not be a proper standard for judgment of rational belief change of human beings for the same reason on-the-spot act utilitarian calculations aren’t a proper standard for human moral decision making–it’s not a method that is practically psychologically realizable. The Bayesian approach has certainly been historically useful, as Desiree Schell’s interview with Sharon Bertsch McGrane, author of The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy, demonstrates. But before concluding that Bayesianism is the objective rational way for individuals or groups to determine what’s true, it’s worth taking a look at the problems philosophers have pointed out for making it the central thesis of epistemology. (Also see John L. Pollock and Joseph Cruz, Contemporary Theories of Knowledge, 2nd edition, Rowman & Littlefield, 1999, which includes a critique of Bayesian epistemology.) UPDATE (August 6, 2013): Just came across this paper by Brandon Fitelson (PDF) defending Bayesian epistemology against some of Pollock’s critiques (in Pollock’s Nomic Probability book, which I’ve read, and in his later Thinking About Acting, which I’ve not read). A critique of how Bayesianism (and not really Bayesian epistemology in the sense defended by Fitelson) is being used by skeptics is here. ...

My favorite part of the Token Skeptic podcast #76’s interview with Sara Mayhew and Jack Scanlan is 28:30-28:42, where Scanlan says “everyone hates pop songs.” That’s a self-annihilating sentence along the lines of “No one goes there anymore; it’s too crowded." That reminds me of Saul Gorn’s compendium, “Self-Annihilating Sentences: Saul Gorn’s Compendium of Rarely Used Cliches," which I have in the original hardcopy but is now available online for everyone’s enjoyment. ...